Bottom Line
Hot Chili continues to advance one of the largest copper projects not owned by a major. The PFS (Preliminary Feasibility Study) takes them one important step closer to making an investment decision and moving the project to production.
Importantly, the PFS economics, which were already very good, remain largely unchanged even with an expanded production scope and industrywide inflation. These numbers also do not include the significant recent discoveries at La Verde, which will likely increase the ultimate production levels and resource at Costa Fuego.
Comparison: PFS vs PEA
Hot Chili trades for $0.91 per pound of measured and inferred resource compared to many peer projects trading 2-3x higher even though these projects have higher costs, need more upfront capital and are at a more uncertain stage of development.
With a water company spinout still in the works at Hot Chili and a recent discovery that could significantly increase the production scope and resource at Costa Fuego, Hot Chili offers investors more potential chances for a rerating than any other independent in the copper space in our view.
Hot Chili Valuation vs Peers
PFS Highlights:
- Post Tax NPV of $1.2B increased from the PEA value of $1.1B even
with startup and expansion capital estimates rising 24%. - Annual production now expected to be 116k CuEq tons/year, up from 114k CuEq.
- Mine life extended from 16 to 20 years
- Probably reserves of 502 million tonnes. 70% of indicated resources converted to reserves with upside remaining from new discovery La Verde.
- Definitive Feasibility Study and Environmental Impact Assessment now in the works.
Our next steps for Costa Fuego are two-pronged: rapid acceleration of drilling and environmental activity at La Verde to lay foundations for integrating material resource and mine life growth, and commencement of a Definitive Feasibility Study and submission of our stage-1 EIA to keep the project on-track for first production before the end of the decade. With cash of approximately A$19 million as at 31st December 2024 and both of our key assets (Costa Fuego and Huasco Water) at PFS level study, we are well positioned to pursue potential strategic partnership and sponsorship funding discussions.
We look forward to providing further updates on drilling (La Verde) and development (Huasco Water) activities, in addition to further changes to our Board of Directors and Management group which aim to further strengthen our capability at this critical inflexion point in the Company’s history”Christian Easterday, Managing Director & CEO, Hot Chili Ltd.
Indicated Mineral Resources for the Costa Fuego Project total 798 Mt @ 0.45% CuEq1 (0.37% Cu, 0.10 g/t Au, 0.50 g/t Ag, and 85 ppm Mo)1. The MRE has an effective date of February 26, 2024, and was reported within open pit and block cave shapes generated considering reasonable prospect of eventual economic extraction ( “RPEEE” ).
Costa Fuego’s low elevation and access to unique water resources make it one of the lowest cost copper projects in South America.
PFS Highlights
Globally Meaningful Scale & Multi-Decade Mine Life
- Project Life Extended to 20 Years
- Average Annual Production Increased 116 ktpa Average CuEq4 Production Rate: Including 95 kt Cu and 48 koz Au during primary production (first 14 years)
- Competitive Cost Position: Life of mine (LOM) average C1 Cash Cost5 of US$ 1.38/lb and All-in-Sustaining Cost of US$1.85/lb (both estimated net of by-product credits)
- Increase in Total Copper and Gold Production: 1.5 Mt Cu (3.31 Blb Cu) and 780 koz Au produced over the LOM
- Robust Financial Profile: Total LOM free cash flow of approximately US$3.86 Billion (post-tax, after operating costs, capital costs, and royalties)
- Significant Risk Reduction: PFS prepared assuming ± 25% accuracy. An additional US$442 million of capital costs applied to significantly reduce key areas of risk, including changes in project scope and inflationary pressures
Strong Economics and Leverage to Rising Copper Price
- Post-tax Net Present Value (NPV8%) of US$1.2 billion (approximately, within a range of US$786 million to US$1.62 Billion) and post-tax Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 19% (approximately, within a range of 15% to 22%)
- First Quartile Capital Intensity: Start-up Capital Cost of US$ 1.27 billion delivers a capital intensity of US$ 14,079/t of average annual CuEq. metal produced
- Highly Leveraged to Copper Price: At current spot copper price of US$5.30/lb6, post-tax NPV8% increases to US$2.2 billion and post-tax IRR to 30%, respectively
Hot Chili’s Costa Fuego is one of the most leveraged pure play projects in copper. Every 1% increase in copper prices drive a 3% increase in the value of the Costa Fuego project.
Low-Risk, Coastal Copper Development with Advanced Permitting
- Low Elevation and Over a Decade of Permitting Advance: One of only a few global copper development projects at low elevation with a water permit, and grid power
- Preparing to submit Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA): Costa Fuego Stage-1 (EIA-1) based on current PFS-scale and definition
Many copper projects have stalled but Hot Chili’s Costa Fuego is on one of the fastest timelines to development and construction
Maiden Mineral Reserve for Costa Fuego Lowers Operational Risk 1,2
- Probable Mineral Reserves of 502 Mt at 0.37% Cu, 0.10 g/t Au, 0.49 g/t Ag and 97 ppm Mo: Across sulphide concentrator, oxide leach and low-grade sulphide leach processing streams
Poised for Up-Scale Opportunity
- La Verde Cu-Au Porphyry Discovery Adds Growth Engine: Major discovery confirmed (refer to announcement dated February 11, 2025) and providing a strong platform for significant potential front-end open pit mine life growth
- Second EIA commenced: Integrating La Verde into the Costa Fuego Stage-2 (EIA-2) copper production hub has potential to materially enhance project economics ahead of completion of a planned Definitive Feasibility Study
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1 Hot Chili previously released Ore Reserves for Productora declared according to JORC Code 2012, a component of Costa Fuego, in the ASX announcement ‘Hot Chili Delivers PFS and Near Doubles Reserves at Productora’ 2 March 2016. The mineral reserves disclosed in this news release represent the maiden Mineral Reserve estimates for the Cortadera, San Antonio and Alice deposits, and the first Mineral Reserve Estimates for the Productora and as a whole Costa Fuego that are reported in accordance with NI 43-101. |
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2 Hot Chili is a dual listed entity and complies with the JORC 2012 code for the ASX for the reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves. The company complies with CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (10 May 2014) that are incorporated by reference into NI 43-101 for the its reporting obligations in Canada as a result of having its shares listed on the TSX Venture Exchange. The terminology of Mineral Reserves (within the meaning of NI 43-101) and Ore Reserves (within the meaning of the JORC Code 2012) have equivalent meanings, and references to the Mineral Reserves within this announcement refer to Ore Reserves within the meaning of the JORC Code 2012. |
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3 S&P Market Intelligence. The Global Developer Peer Group of project studies were selected on the following basis: Global primary copper projects (not controlled by a major mining company), with net by-product credits where applicable, reporting studies of average annual life-of-mine copper production of greater than 40 kt, which have been published within the last 5 years. |
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4 The copper-equivalent (CuEq) annual production rate was based on the combined processing feed (across all sources) and used long-term commodity prices of: Copper US$ 4.30/lb, Gold US$ 2,280/oz, Molybdenum US$ 20/lb, and Silver US$25/oz; and estimated metallurgical recoveries for the production feed to the following processes: Concentrator (86% Cu, 54% Au, 37% Ag, 70% Mo), Oxide Leach (65% Cu only), & Low-grade Sulphide Leach (39% Cu only). |
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5 See page Announcement page 3 for full non-IFRS measures disclaimer. |
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6 Copper price – Fast markets quote 26/03/2025. High of $5.37/lb closing price $5.24/lb |
Pre-Feasibility Study Overview
The Costa Fuego PFS outlines a copper-gold project delivering an annual copper equivalent metal production profile of 90 kt for the 20-year processing life (including over 116 kt for the first 14 years). Project economics are strongly leveraged to further resource growth and copper price appreciation.
The Costa Fuego Project combines four mineral deposits within three discrete mining areas comprising porphyry-hosted copper-gold-molybdenum, iron-oxide copper-gold-molybdenum and high-grade skarn-hosted copper mineralizations. The current Mineral Resource for Costa Fuego with an effective date of February 26, 2024 is reported as 2.76 Mt of contained copper1 and all mining areas are contained within a tight 20 km radius. Costa Fuego benefits from a favourable elevation at 740 m above sea level, is proximal to port facilities (~60 km) and has access to existing infrastructure.
The Costa Fuego Project’s proximity to the regional centre and capital of the Huasco Province, Vallenar (population 52 000), ensures that an experienced and capable local workforce would be available, and no camp build would be required.
Mining and Processing
Mining of oxide and sulphide processing feed utilises both open-pit and underground (block cave) bulk mining methodologies. Early mining is concentrated at the Productora open-pit, where high-grade, near-surface feed is front-ended to aid in the payback of construction capital and to fund development of the underground block cave at Cortadera.
Processing plant feed is mined at relatively low-cost due to competitive ore to waste strip ratios (1:1.5 for the open pits).
Copper in sulphide is predominantly chalcopyrite-hosted, readily recovered by a conventional crush-grind-float methodology to produce a clean, marketable concentrate with very low levels of deleterious elements. Substantial credit is added with the presence of gold and silver in copper concentrate, as well as a separate molybdenum concentrate.
The sulphide concentrator, located near the Productora-Alice mining area, is designed for a nominal throughput of 20.7 Mtpa and capable of averaging 21.7 Mtpa across the project life.
Oxide and low-grade sulphide ore is processed on heap and dump-leach facilities at Productora, respectively, with testwork confirming strong recoveries using a hyperchloride leach solution. Copper is extracted from solution through an SX-EW plant. The heap leach pad is designed to accept 4 Mtpa, with the SX-EW facility producing a maximum of 12 ktpa of copper cathode.
Permitting and Stakeholder Engagement
Environmental surveys and other studies required for project permitting are well advanced, with submission of an environmental impact assessment for the Costa Fuego Project planned for 2025.
Growth and Opportunity
Significant opportunity still exists to add to the Costa Fuego Project, with the recent discovery of copper-gold porphyry mineralization at La Verde located 50 km by road from the processing facility at Productora. Additional growth opportunities are being investigated at the recently consolidated Domeyko tenement package, with field reconnaissance completed at a number of priority targets.
High-value development optimizations are still being investigated across mining and processing, including an opportunity to monetize cobalt and increase overall copper and gold recovery through inclusion of a pyrite concentrate circuit, and the investigation of a single open-pit scenario at Cortadera removing the requirement for the underground block cave.
Mineral Resource Estimate
The Costa Fuego Mineral Resource ( “MRE” ) is reported in accordance with the Joint Ore Reserves Committee Code (2012) and the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum ( “CIM” ) Standards on Mineral Resources and Reserves, Definitions and Guidelines prepared by the CIM Standing Committee on Reserve Definition, as required by NI 43-101.
Indicated Mineral Resources for the Costa Fuego Project total 798 Mt @ 0.45% CuEq1 (0.37% Cu, 0.10 g/t Au, 0.50 g/t Ag, and 85 ppm Mo)1. The MRE has an effective date of February 26, 2024, and was reported within open pit and block cave shapes generated considering reasonable prospect of eventual economic extraction ( “RPEEE” ).
Drilling across Costa Fuego has been completed over 15 years, beginning with Productora and Alice in 2010, followed by San Antonio in 2018 and then Cortadera in 2019. The Costa Fuego MRE are informed by approximately 76 400 m of diamond drilling and 284 000 m of reverse circulation drilling across the four mineral deposits.
Estimation of the main grade variables (copper, gold, silver, and molybdenum) was completed using categorical indicator kriging, ordinary block kriging and inverse distance interpolation within either manually interpreted mineralization domains or software-guided grade interpolants, and sometimes a combination of both methodologies. Mineral Resources were classified as either Indicated or Inferred, based on a range of criteria, including but not limited to, geological and grade continuity between drill holes, drill hole spacing, mineralization type, and data quality.
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1 Mineral Resources are reported on a 100% Basis – combining Mineral Resource estimates for the Cortadera, Productora, Alice and San Antonio deposits. All figures are rounded, reported to appropriate significant figures and reported in accordance with the Joint Ore Reserves Committee Code (2012) and NI 43-101. Mineral Resource estimation practices are in accordance with CIM Estimation of Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Best Practice Guidelines (29 November 2019) and reported in accordance CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (10 May 2014) that are incorporated by reference into NI 43-101. |
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2 Mineral Resources are inclusive of the Mineral Reserve |
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3 The Productora deposit is 100% owned by Chilean incorporated company Sociedad Minera El Aguila SpA (SMEA). SMEA is a joint venture (JV) company – 80% owned by Sociedad Minera El Corazón SpA (a 100% subsidiary of Hot Chili), and 20% owned by Compañía Minera del Pacífico S.A (CMP). |
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4 The Cortadera deposit is controlled by a Chilean incorporated company Sociedad Minera La Frontera SpA (Frontera). Frontera is a subsidiary company – 100% owned by Sociedad Minera El Corazón SpA, which is a 100% subsidiary of Hot Chili. |
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5 The San Antonio deposit is controlled through Frontera (100% owned by Sociedad Minera El Corazón SpA, which is a 100% subsidiary of Hot Chili Liited) and Frontera is party to an Option Agreement pursuant to which it can earn a 100% interest in the property. |
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6 The Mineral Resource Estimates (MRE) in the tables above form coherent bodies of mineralisation that are considered amenable to a combination of open pit and underground extraction methods based on the following parameters: Base Case Metal Prices: Copper US$ 3.00/lb, Gold US$ 1,700/oz, Molybdenum US$ 14/lb, and Silver US$20/oz. |
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7 All MRE were assessed for Reasonable Prospects of Eventual Economic Extraction (RPEEE) using both Open Pit and Block Cave Extraction mining methods at Cortadera and Open Pit mining methods at the Productora, Alice and San Antonio deposits. |
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8 Metallurgical recovery averages for each deposit consider Indicated + Inferred material and are weighted to combine sulphide flotation and oxide leaching performance. Process recoveries: Cortadera – Weighted recoveries of 82% Cu, 55% Au, 81% Mo and 36% Ag. CuEq(%) = Cu(%) + 0.55 x Au(g/t) + 0.00046 x Mo(ppm) + 0.0043 x Ag(g/t). San Antonio – Weighted recoveries of 85% Cu, 66% Au, 80% Mo and 63% Ag. CuEq(%) = Cu(%) + 0.64 x Au(g/t) + 0.00044 x Mo(ppm) + 0.0072 x Ag(g/t) Alice – Weighted recoveries of 81% Cu, 47% Au, 52% Mo and 37% Ag. CuEq(%) = Cu(%) + 0.48 x Au(g/t) + 0.00030 x Mo(ppm) + 0.0044 x Ag(g/t). Productora – Weighted recoveries of 84% Cu, 47% Au, 48% Mo and 18% Ag. CuEq(%) = Cu(%) + 0.46 x Au(g/t) + 0.00026 x Mo(ppm) + 0.0021 x Ag(g/t). Costa Fuego – Recoveries of 83% Cu, 53% Au, 71% Mo and 26% Ag. CuEq(%) = Cu(%) + 0.53 x Au(g/t) + 0.00040 x Mo(ppm) + 0.0030 x Ag(g/t) |
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9 Copper Equivalent (CuEq) grades are calculated based on the formula: CuEq% = ((Cu% × Cu price 1% per tonne × Cu_recovery) + (Mo ppm × Mo price per g/t × Mo_recovery) + (Au ppm × Au price per g/t × Au_recovery) + (Ag ppm × Ag price per g/t × Ag_recovery)) / (Cu price 1% per tonne × Cu recovery). The base case cut-off grade for Mineral Resources considered amenable to open pit extraction methods at the Cortadera, Productora, Alice and San Antonio deposits is 0.20% CuEq, while the cut-off grade for Mineral Resources considered amenable to underground extraction methods at the Cortadera deposit is 0.27% CuEq. It is the Company’s opinion that all the elements included in the CuEq calculation have a reasonable potential to be recovered and sold. |
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10 Mineral Resources are not Mineral Reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability. The MRE include Inferred Mineral Resources that are considered too speculative geologically to have economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorised as Mineral Reserves. It is reasonably expected that the majority of Inferred mineral resources could be upgraded to Measured or Indicated Mineral Resources with continued exploration. |
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11 The effective date of the MRE is 26 February 2024. The MRE were previously reported in Hot Chili’s technical report entitled “Costa Fuego Copper Project – NI 43-101 Technical Report Mineral Resource Estimate Update” dated April 8, 2024 with an effective date of February 26, 2024 (the “2024 MRE”). Hot Chili confirms it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the 2024 PEA and all material assumptions and technical parameters stated for the MRE in the 2024 PEA continue to apply and have not materially changed. |
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12 Hot Chili Limited is not aware of political, environmental, or other risks that could materially affect the potential development of the Mineral Resources other than as disclosed in the 2024 PEA. A detailed list of Costa Fuego Project risks is included in Chapter 25.12 of the 2024 PEA. |
Mineral Reserve Estimate
The Costa Fuego Project at PFS stage envisages conventional open pit, truck and shovel operation from four mineral deposits (Alice, Cortadera, Productora, and San Antonio) and underground block caving from a single mine area (Cortadera, below Cuerpo 3 open pit). Ore would be processed either via heap leach (oxide only), concentrator (transitional and fresh only), or low-grade dump leach (all material classifications).
The Probable Mineral Reserve is based on Indicated Mineral Resources within resource block models regularised to 5 m * x 10 m (y) x 5 m (z). Only Indicated blocks have been considered for the Mineral Reserve, with metal grades for Inferred Resource blocks coded to zero before the first stage of model optimisation.
Dilution and ore loss is captured within the mineral resource block model due to regularisation to the singular mining unit ( “SMU” ). This is considered appropriate for the large-scale mineralised systems that comprise the majority of the Costa Fuego Mineral Reserve.
Mineral Reserve evaluation was completed using a series of open pit optimisation created using Net Smelter Return ( “NSR” ) cut-offs which were subsequently engineered into mining design stages.
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1Mineral Reserves are reported on a 100% Basis – combining Mineral Reserve estimates for the Cortadera, Productora, Alice and San Antonio deposits, and have an effective date of 27 March 2025. |
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2An Ore Reserve (declared in accordance with JORC Code 2012) was previously reported at Productora, a component of Costa Fuego, on 2nd March 2016 on the ASX. The Company was not subject to the requirements of NI 43-101 at that time. |
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3Mineral Reserve estimation practices are in accordance with CIM Estimation of Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Best Practice Guidelines (29 November 2019) and reported in accordance CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (10 May 2014) that are incorporated by reference into NI 43-101. |
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4The Mineral Reserve reported above was not additive to the Mineral Resource. The Mineral Reserve is based on the 26 February 2024 Mineral Resource. |
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5Tonnages and grades are rounded to two significant figures. All figures are rounded, reported to appropriate significant figures and reported in accordance with the Joint Ore Reserves Committee Code (2012) and NI 43-101. As each number is rounded individually, the table may show apparent inconsistencies between the sum of rounded components and the corresponding rounded total. |
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6Mineral Reserves are reported using long-term metal prices of US$4.30/lb Cu, US$2,280/oz Au, US$27/oz Ag, US$20/lb Mo. |
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7The Mineral Reserve tonnages and grades are estimated and reported as delivered to plant (the point where material is delivered to the processing facility) and is therefore inclusive of ore loss and dilution. |
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8The Productora deposit is 100% owned by Chilean incorporated company Sociedad Minera El Aguila SpA (SMEA). SMEA is a joint venture (JV) company – 80% owned by Sociedad Minera El Corazón SpA (a 100% subsidiary of Hot Chili), and 20% owned by Compañía Minera del Pacífico S.A (CMP). |
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9The Cortadera deposit is controlled by a Chilean incorporated company Sociedad Minera La Frontera SpA (Frontera). Frontera is a subsidiary company – 100% owned by Sociedad Minera El Corazón SpA, which is a 100% subsidiary of Hot Chili. |
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10The San Antonio deposit is controlled through Frontera (100% owned by Sociedad Minera El Corazón SpA, which is a 100% subsidiary of Hot Chili) and Frontera is party to an Option Agreement pursuant to which it can earn a 100% interest in the property. |
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11The Mineral Reserve Estimate as of 27 March 2025 for Costa Fuego was prepared by Anton von Wielligh, Fellow with the AUSIMM (FAUSIMM). Mr. von Wielligh fulfils the requirements to be a “Qualified Person” within the meaning of NI 43-101 and is the Competent Person under JORC for the Mineral Reserve. |
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12Hot Chili Limited is not aware of political, environmental, or other risks that could materially affect the potential development of the Mineral Reserves other than those that will be disclosed in a technical report for the PFS. A detailed list of Costa Fuego Project risks is also included in Chapter 25.12 of the 2024 PEA. |
National instrument 43-101
An independent technical report for the PFS, prepared in accordance with NI 43-101 will be available under the Company’s SEDAR profile and website within the next 45 days.
Qualified Persons
The PFS was compiled by Wood Australia Pty Ltd with contributions from a team of independent Qualified Persons within the meaning of NI 43 -101. The scientific and technical information contained in this news release pertaining to Costa Fuego has been reviewed and verified by the following independent qualified persons within the meaning of NI 43-101:
- Ms Elizabeth Haren (FAUSIMM (CP) & MAIG) of Haren Consulting – Mineral Resource Estimate
- Mr Dean David (FAUSIMM (CP)) of Wood Pty Ltd – Metallurgy
- Mr Piers Wendlandt (PE) of Wood Pty Ltd – Market Studies and Contracts, Economic Analysis
- Mr David Cuello (MAUSIMM) of GMT Servicios de Ingeniería – Geotechnical
- Mr Jeffrey Stevens (Pr. Eng, MSAIMM) of Wood Pty Ltd – Infrastructure and Capital Cost
- Mr Luis Bernal (Comisión Minera (PC) Registered Member) of Process Mineral Consulting – Leaching
- Mr Anton von Wielligh (FAUSIMM) of ABGM Consulting Pty Ltd – Mine Planning and Scheduling
- Mr Edmundo LaPorte (PE, PEng, CPEng, SME Registered Member) of High River Services – Environmental
- The above independent Qualified Persons have verified the information disclosed herein, including the sampling, preparation, security, and analytical procedures underlying such information.
A corporate presentation outlining the results of the PFS is being filed concurrently with this news release.
The Company will be hosting webinars on Monday 31st March 10.00 am EST (for North American audience) to brief shareholders and investors on the outcomes of the Costa Fuego and Huasco Water PFS.
Hot Chili’s Chief Executive Officer Christian Easterday, Executive Vice President Jose Ignacio Silva, Chief Operating Officer Grant King and Chief Financial Officer Ryan Finkelstein will be hosting the call, which will also include a Q&A session.
Hot Chili Limited is a market awareness client of Capital 10X. For more information, including potential conflicts of interest please see our Content Disclaimer.
