{"id":25552,"date":"2023-01-13T09:07:21","date_gmt":"2023-01-13T14:07:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=25552"},"modified":"2024-03-20T16:43:39","modified_gmt":"2024-03-20T20:43:39","slug":"copper-rallies-on-china-reopening-the-miners-to-have-on-your-radar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/copper-rallies-on-china-reopening-the-miners-to-have-on-your-radar\/","title":{"rendered":"Copper Rallies on China Reopening: The Miners to Have on Your Radar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s been an incredible start to 2023 for copper, the red metal has risen to a 6-month high on the back of China easing its stifling COVID restrictions.<\/p>\n<div class=\"youtube-embed\" data-video_id=\"mWO7gTMOHmo\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Copper Rallies on China Reopening: The Miners to Have on Your Radar\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/mWO7gTMOHmo?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1&#038;enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/capital10x.com\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>In early December China announced sweeping changes to its national response to COVID, as the central government was forced to move away from its strict zero-COVID approach that prompted protests across the country.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25549\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-price.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-price.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-price-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-price-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-price-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-price-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-price-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-price-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>On January 8th China reopened its borders to tourists after three years of COVID-19 closure. Incoming travelers will no longer need to quarantine; 400,000 people are expected to travel into mainland China from Hong Kong in the coming weeks with long queues for flights into cities including Beijing and Xiamen.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25554\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/northbound-china-visits.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"892\" height=\"525\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/northbound-china-visits.png 892w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/northbound-china-visits-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/northbound-china-visits-768x452.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/northbound-china-visits-696x410.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 892px) 100vw, 892px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Additionally, nearly all major Chinese cities are reporting a recovery in subway use, a sign that COVID infections may have peaked in some urban areas.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25555\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/china-subway.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"790\" height=\"496\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/china-subway.png 790w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/china-subway-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/china-subway-768x482.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/china-subway-696x437.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 790px) 100vw, 790px\" \/><\/p>\n<h1>A China Reopened is Bullish for Copper<\/h1>\n<p>The reopening is viewed as bullish for commodity demand and prices. BlackRock believes China\u2019s reopening will spur domestic spending and drive global growth, offsetting the negative impacts of a potential developed market recession. They estimate that economic growth in China will be 6% in 2023, cushioning the global slowdown in major developed market economies.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs highlights that capital expenditure across mining companies in 2022 was nearly 50% below peak spend in 2010\u2019s while disruptions on the copper mine supply side are set to hit 1.6Mt this year, a record level. Operators have cited that cuts to maintenance capex as the key factor that has left mines with greater susceptibility to disruption and underperformance.<\/p>\n<p>Given the significant disruptions on the copper mine supply side, the copper market is set to remain in deficit for 2023 \u2013 and Goldman does not anticipate any surplus over the near term horizon (2023-2025).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25548\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-mkt-deficit.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-mkt-deficit.jpg 1920w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-mkt-deficit-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-mkt-deficit-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-mkt-deficit-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-mkt-deficit-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-mkt-deficit-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/copper-mkt-deficit-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Global inventories for major base metals are sitting at record low levels. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bak, believes the low levels of industrial metals held at exchange monitored warehouses (LME &amp; SHFE) will force buyers to look elsewhere should China trigger a sustained pickup in demand.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25550\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/LME-SHFE-warehouse-stocks.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/LME-SHFE-warehouse-stocks.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/LME-SHFE-warehouse-stocks-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/LME-SHFE-warehouse-stocks-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/LME-SHFE-warehouse-stocks-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/LME-SHFE-warehouse-stocks-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/LME-SHFE-warehouse-stocks-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/LME-SHFE-warehouse-stocks-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/p>\n<h1>The Energy Transition will be Copper Intensive<\/h1>\n<p>On a longer term perspective, a 2022 S&amp;P Global study found that significant copper shortfalls will begin in 2025 \u2013 as result of increased demand from energy transition and limited new copper supply. Their rocky road scenario assumes current mine supply and recycling trends continue, resulting in a 10 million metric ton shortfall by 2035. Even in the high ambition scenario, assuming significant enhancement in extraction and recycling rates the shortfall persists till 2035.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24893\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/sierra-global-copper-mkt-balance.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/sierra-global-copper-mkt-balance.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/sierra-global-copper-mkt-balance-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/sierra-global-copper-mkt-balance-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/sierra-global-copper-mkt-balance-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/sierra-global-copper-mkt-balance-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/sierra-global-copper-mkt-balance-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/sierra-global-copper-mkt-balance-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For the automotive industry, net-zero ambitions will require the transition from internal combustion engines to battery-powered electric vehicles. Many auto manufacturers are aiming to completely revamp their fleets to EVs and hybrid vehicles. The copper intensity in EV will significantly increase moving forward. For an internal combustion vehicle of any size there is approximately 24KG of copper, in a light duty EV its 60KG, medium duty EV has 139 KG and a heavy-duty EV has 425 KG.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24756\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/copper-content-in-vehicles.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/copper-content-in-vehicles.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/copper-content-in-vehicles-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/copper-content-in-vehicles-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/copper-content-in-vehicles-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/copper-content-in-vehicles-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/copper-content-in-vehicles-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/copper-content-in-vehicles-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<h1>Best Value Among Copper Miners<\/h1>\n<p>This is clearly a very constructive near-term and long-term backdrop for copper miners. We highlight two of the best value plays among small cap and large cap miners \u2013 Amerigo Resources and Lundin Mining.<\/p>\n<h2>Amerigo Resources (TSE:ARG) &#8211; Dividend Income with Leverage to Copper Prices<\/h2>\n<p>Amerigo (TSE:ARG) is one of the most attractive names in the copper mining sector, a company with strong leverage to copper prices and highest dividend yield in the sector at 8%.<\/p>\n<p>Amerigo produces copper without a copper mine, they recover copper from tailing waste streams at Chile\u2019s largest copper mines. They process the waste to recover the copper along with molybdenum \u2013 the concentrate product they produce is the same concentrate produced by traditional mines.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25547\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-process.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-process.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-process-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-process-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-process-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-process-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-process-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-process-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Amerigo isn\u2019t a mining company, their core business proposition is a better analogy with a wastewater treatment company. The real differentiator is that a wastewater plant gets a flat fee, while Amerigo gets full leverage to the copper price.<\/p>\n<p>Amerigo has minimal sustaining capex requirements and therefore can focus on return of capital to shareholders. The company has three tools they utilize for their capital return policy: quarterly dividends, performance dividends and share buybacks.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25557\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-capital-return.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"649\" height=\"343\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-capital-return.png 649w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-capital-return-300x159.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 649px) 100vw, 649px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Amerigo Resources\u2019 unique value comes from its peer leading dividend yield. Amerigo\u2019s current 8% yield puts it ahead of all but 1 of the highest yielding companies in the S&amp;P 500 and well above the 1.5% yield of the Russell 2000. Amerigo even yields more than the average high yield bond at 7.7%, even though the company is in a net cash position, putting its credit quality far above high yield.<\/p>\n<p>Amerigo&#8217;s 8% dividend yield is also higher than the TSX Dividend Aristocrats Index and the TSX Composite Index.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25556\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-dividend-yield-100.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-dividend-yield-100.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-dividend-yield-100-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-dividend-yield-100-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-dividend-yield-100-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-dividend-yield-100-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-dividend-yield-100-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/amerigo-dividend-yield-100-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Amerigo\u2019s base dividend is well supported. In 2022, management guided that at a $4\/lb copper price, Amerigo should generate free cash flow to equity of $18 million, 1.2x coverage of the current dividend run rate of $14.8 million. Higher copper prices in 2023 over 2022\u2019s $4\/lb price are the catalyst to look for in this company.<\/p>\n<h2>Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN) &#8211; Geographically Diversified &amp; Copper Focused<\/h2>\n<p>Lundin Mining is the large cap copper miner that screens best to us. Lundin trades at a ~10% discount to its C$10.71\/sh NAV and has a 5%+ dividend yield on top. Lundin trades at a big discount to larger peers like Freeport and First Quantum and a 10% discount to the copper universe as a whole. Lundin mining offers investors a significant geographic diversification in stable jurisdictions coupled with strong copper metal production.<\/p>\n<p>Management thinks they can cut production costs in 2023 and the market is currently expecting costs to decline 12% in 2023, which could support a further raising of the dividend.<\/p>\n<p>Given Lundin\u2019s low production costs, rising revenue and conservative debt profile, we like the mix of yield, discounted valuation, upside to higher copper prices and a low risk balance sheet.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25551\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/lundin-mining-geo-diversified.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/lundin-mining-geo-diversified.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/lundin-mining-geo-diversified-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/lundin-mining-geo-diversified-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/lundin-mining-geo-diversified-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/lundin-mining-geo-diversified-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/lundin-mining-geo-diversified-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/lundin-mining-geo-diversified-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China&#8217;s reopening has sparked a strong rally in copper prices. We highlight stocks to have on your radar: Amerigo Resources &#038; Lundin Mining<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":17309,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2430,56],"tags":[2098,2097,2099,587,76,2187,885,1700,884,2155,2188,2186,1798],"class_list":{"0":"post-25552","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energy-transition-metals","8":"category-featured","9":"tag-amerigo","10":"tag-amerigo-resources","11":"tag-arg","12":"tag-china","13":"tag-copper","14":"tag-covid","15":"tag-lun","16":"tag-lundin","17":"tag-lundin-mining","18":"tag-tsearg","19":"tag-tselun","20":"tag-tsxarg","21":"tag-tsxlun"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Copper Rallies on China Reopening: The Miners to Have on Your Radar | Capital 10X<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"China&#039;s reopening has sparked a strong rally in copper prices. 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