{"id":25020,"date":"2022-09-21T13:53:59","date_gmt":"2022-09-21T17:53:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=25020"},"modified":"2022-09-21T13:53:59","modified_gmt":"2022-09-21T17:53:59","slug":"nuclear-pivot-update-uranium-demand-drivers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/nuclear-pivot-update-uranium-demand-drivers\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuclear Pivot Update: Uranium Demand Drivers"},"content":{"rendered":"

Can’t Stop Won’t Stop the Nuclear Pivot<\/h2>\n

We\u2019ve been covering the Nuclear Pivot for quite some time \u2013 a gradual move which has now become a 180 degree turn towards nuclear power as a short-term support during the energy crisis, and a long-term prospect for a low carbon future.\u00a0 Monitoring changes in the uranium market are a priority as the world turns to nuclear energy.<\/p>\n

The Ukraine \/ Russian conflict isn\u2019t ending anytime soon. President Vladimir Putin announced today that Russia will partially mobilize<\/a> their military reserves, a reaction to recent Ukrainian success in their counteroffensive in northeastern Ukraine.\u00a0 As the conflict continues and is further compounded with inflationary pressures, European and global energy supply constraints have brought nuclear energy back into the spotlight.<\/p>\n

We’ve taken a look at efforts of the UK, US and Germany to shore up their energy supplies in previous articles.\u00a0 Let’s take a quick glance at Russia and China as the two nations continue to influence uranium demand.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s Russia Been Up To?<\/h2>\n

Russia currently operates reactors in 11 foreign countries, with plans to expand its markets in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. As of June 2022, a total of 17 WER reactors were under construction outside of Russia in Turkey (3), Iran (1), India (4), Slovakia (2), Belarus (1), Bangladesh (2) and China (4). Russia\u2019s electricity production from nuclear continues to rise, reaching over 200 TWh in 2021.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Russia has been busy.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Russia is keeping busy, having influenced Hungary to build two nuclear reactors after the invasion of Ukraine started, to support Prime Minister Orban\u2019s social programs and political prospects.<\/p>\n

China?<\/h2>\n

China has plans for 30 overseas nuclear reactors as part of its Belt and Road initiative.\u00a0 Chinese ambitions go beyond reactors \u2013 they control (Margot Rubin vid) % of enrichment capability etc.\u00a0 China holds equity<\/a> in mines in Niger, Namibia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Canada.<\/p>\n

Uranium Prices<\/h2>\n

On the news of nations like Japan, the UK, and the US shoring up their nuclear production has spurred a Uranium price response this year, with prices soaring by more than 70% to $52\/lb. Dave Olive, business columnist pointed out<\/a> that today\u2019s higher prices have spawned uranium exploration, in a mining cycle that usually ends with overproduction. While this is true, observing the historical prices \u2013 the last time we saw similar highs was in 2007, when uranium hit its record price of $140\/lb. during the most recent \u201cNuclear Renaissance\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"\"
2007 was a pivotal and informative year for the uranium market.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But this Time is Different…No, Really<\/h2>\n

The main difference in the market today is the political situation with Russia, which is quickly becoming a pariah in West. This changes the supply\/demand dynamic, as the European Union looks to exclude Russian sources of energy.<\/p>\n

According to the World Nuclear Association\u2019s Nuclear Fuel Report, there will be a 27% increase in uranium demand until 2030. Demand is going to demand on new plant construction and retirement rates of older\/obsolete plants. The Nuclear Fuel Report has a 38% increase in uranium demand from 2031 \u2013 2040.<\/p>\n

\"\"
No Electricity Growth = No Economic Growth<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It is our view that within a narrow scope of price, overproduction is a persistent threat as in all cyclical commodities. However, with electricity demand by 2040 potentially increasing by 50% by 2040 (based on the IEA\u2019s World Energy Outlook) there is a lot of room for growth in nuclear capacity. Another persistent threat moving forward is inflationary and militarily driven geo-political uncertainty.\u00a0 As a result of this framework, there has been an uptick in onset of long-term contracts, as worldwide utilities seek to ensure a steady uranium supply.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Uranium Contracting Volumes vs Price<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Geo-political threats are a sentiment game changer for nuclear. Global governments are shoring up supplies, as uranium sources are mainly in the hands of perceived authoritarian regimes.<\/p>\n

\"\"
The majority of uranium supply is in the hands of regimes the Western nations don’t like<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There is a clear opportunity for large suppliers to take advantage of these market conditions, as customers look for reliable suppliers that can engage in contracting at all stages of the nuclear fuel demand cycle. So, for the interim we can anticipate uranium prices to remain strong over the next few quarters, as competition for these contracts heats up \u2013 but will continue to lag demand for this low carbon-emission source of energy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Let\u2019s look at some recent developments in the global Nuclear Pivot \u2013 a gradual move which has now become a 180 degree turn to more nuclear energy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":24419,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60,56],"tags":[2066,1967,1959,1909,2065,2067],"class_list":{"0":"post-25020","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energy","8":"category-featured","9":"tag-electricity-power","10":"tag-nuclear-energy","11":"tag-nuclear-power","12":"tag-russia-ukraine-war","13":"tag-uranium","14":"tag-uranium-spot-price"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNuclear Pivot Update: Uranium Demand Drivers | Capital 10X<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Let\u2019s look at some recent developments in the global Nuclear Pivot \u2013 a gradual move which has now become a 180 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