{"id":24942,"date":"2022-08-29T09:38:24","date_gmt":"2022-08-29T13:38:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=24942"},"modified":"2022-08-29T14:04:19","modified_gmt":"2022-08-29T18:04:19","slug":"whats-stopping-lng-exports-from-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/whats-stopping-lng-exports-from-canada\/","title":{"rendered":"What’s Stopping LNG Exports from Canada?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Canada is known to punch above its weight in sports, entertainment, and most notably resources. If you\u2019re Canadian, rest assured you\u2019re aware that the great outdoors represents a bed of riches. Which brings us to recent controversies surrounding Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).<\/p>\n

For a primer on the LNG market read this<\/a>. We\u2019ve discussed<\/a> LNG in prior articles<\/a>, as Germany and the rest of the EU struggle to replace their Russian energy supplies.\u00a0 Europe is eager to diversify and increase consumption – currently 70% of its natural gas comes from only 3 nations.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Europe’s Natural Gas Imports<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

German Chancellor Scholz would really like Canada to export more LNG to Europe and called Canada their \u201cpartner of choice\u201d during the energy crisis, hoping that Canadian LNG will play a major role<\/a>. Most of Canada\u2019s gas is used domestically, with the remainder shipped to the US. As Canada is the world\u2019s fifth largest producer of natural gas the potential relationship appears to be a no-brainer.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Like Jada, Canada holds a strong position in the game.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau quickly crushed Germany’s LNG dreams, stating that there has \u201cnever been a strong business case\u201d for exporting LNG to his NATO allies.<\/p>\n

Why, Justin?!<\/h2>\n

Trudeau has said that other countries ship their LNG from sources that are near to their terminals. So, it may not be economical to ship LNG across the country from the West Coast to the Maritimes to send to Europe. As with other NATO members, his administration foresees a future where renewables and energy with low carbon emissions play a larger role in the mix. He is very gun shy about spending billions to support an LNG supply chain that may not be viable for the long term. The value-chain for LNG boils down to huge upfront costs, followed by marginal operating costs.\u00a0 Justin is hard pressed to justify<\/em> (sorry \u2013 we couldn\u2019t help ourselves) the massive initial investment to develop the industry.<\/p>\n

\"\"
LNG Value Chain<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Instead, Trudeau promoted and struck long term deals for hydrogen, announcing that the two countries will build a \u201cTrans-Atlantic supply corridor<\/a>\u201d and begin exports by 2025 \u2013 perturbing many. A company called World Energy GH2 has proposed to produce hydrogen in Newfoundland and Labrador, building 164 wind turbines to power a plant to make green hydrogen from water. Construction for the turbines has yet to begin, and the company needs approval from 24 separate government agencies\u2026so 2025 seems like a fantasy.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Canada is resource rich – regulations and lack of infrastructure are tripping up progress<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

To be fair, Germany is hungry for hydrogen tech – the have a National Hydrogen strategy, building infrastructure for domestic use.\u00a0 Canadian involvement seems far off.\u00a0 It\u2019s been pointed out by investors and analysts that LNG from one Canadian port can be worth 9 figures per day. So, what\u2019s the problem? Let\u2019s look at Canada\u2019s current LNG projects, infrastructure, and capabilities.<\/p>\n

Natural Resources Canada tells us that there\u2019s 18 proposals for LNG export projects. 15 are in BC, five are on the East Coast. There are currently no LNG export terminals in operation in Canada, yet.\u00a0 The Canadian Minister of the Environment stated in June, that the East Coast only has enough natural gas supply to accommodate one new LNG export facility. The fastest one to possibly come online would be the Repsol project (REP.MC) known as The Saint John LNG Terminal in New Brunswick. If started today, the Saint John Terminal would take years to get online.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Proposed East Coast Canadian LNG Projects -many challenges<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Surprisingly, there had been plans to convert the terminal for export (it is now an import terminal), but Repsol cancelled their plans in 2016 due to lack of investors. This seems counter-intuitive but obviously in 2016, the world was a different place.<\/p>\n

LNG? NIMBY!<\/h2>\n

Canadian LNG projects have their detractors. The construction of the pipelines necessary to transport would take years to build.\u00a0 Historically these projects have received strong opposition from environmental and indigenous groups in Canada, and fostered political rivalries amongst the provinces. So the current government has nothing to gain politically from a strong move towards an energy source perceived as a “dirty fossil fuel” like LNG.<\/p>\n

The Land of the Free and the Home of LNG<\/h2>\n

By contrast, the U.S. is making bank with LNG. In 2019, they became the world’s third largest LNG exporter, behind Australia and Qatar. There are 2 LNG liquefaction units (\u201ctrains\u201d) planned to come online by the end of this year. Once these trains at Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana get rolling, the US will have the world\u2019s largest LNG export capacity.<\/p>\n

\"\"
The U.S is not joking when it comes to ramping up their LNG exports.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

9 Points to Take Away<\/h2>\n

To recap, Canada is a challenging political\/economic environment for a potential functioning LNG industry. The challenges include:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Infrastructure gap (LNG terminals) of a least 3 to 4 years
\n\u2022 Infrastructure gap (gas pipeline) of 3+ years
\n\u2022 Regulatory hurdles and unfriendly policy direction of Canada\u2019s federal government
\n\u2022 No clear political gain in making a large federal investment
\n\u2022 Regulatory hurdles due to pressure from special interests
\n\u2022 Lack of commercial investment
\n\u2022 German infrastructure gap of at least 6 months to receive LNG imports
\n\u2022 German NetZero goals may halt LNG long-term business
\n\u2022 US-owned market, no clear competitive advantages for Canada to enter<\/p>\n

The glimmer of hope for LNG in Canada is the continued dialogue and relationship with the Germans, strengthened in light of the energy crisis fomented by the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Long-term commitments and mutual investment are key here, or the bulk of the market share of LNG will continue to be the domain of the U.S.<\/p>\n

We have yet to see conclusive numbers. We need to see that LNG, sourced from one side of Canada and transported via pipeline to the east coast for shipment to Germany, can be sold at a price that\u2019s competitive with a brownfield or greenfield project sponsored by the United States Geological Survey or a US corporation. This is key to future developments for LNG in Canada. Until there’s access to deeper project-by-project analysis, stakeholders in Canada will continue to sit on the sidelines and argue about their potential stats in a game they\u2019ve barely started playing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is potentially viable industry for Canadian LNG Exports. However, the current political and economic landscape presents a field of uncertainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":15445,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60,56],"tags":[449,1855,433,1907,2022,168,2024,2023],"class_list":{"0":"post-24942","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energy","8":"category-featured","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-energy","11":"tag-germany","12":"tag-lng","13":"tag-lng-exports","14":"tag-natural-gas","15":"tag-politics","16":"tag-repsol"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat's Stopping LNG Exports from Canada? | Capital 10X<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There is potentially viable industry for Canadian LNG Exports. 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