{"id":24230,"date":"2022-03-03T10:38:35","date_gmt":"2022-03-03T15:38:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=24230"},"modified":"2022-03-18T12:26:44","modified_gmt":"2022-03-18T16:26:44","slug":"war-triggering-a-commodity-squeeze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/war-triggering-a-commodity-squeeze\/","title":{"rendered":"War Triggering a Commodity Squeeze: Own Critical Green Energy Metals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Russia-Ukraine War has trigged a significant squeeze in nearly all major commodities. We analyze green metals of interest and the companies best positioned. <strong>Copper:<\/strong> Sierra Metals &amp; Hudbay; <strong>Lithium:<\/strong> SQM &amp; Lithium Americas &amp; <strong>Vanadium:<\/strong> Largo.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Commodity Squeeze: Critical Green Energy Metal Stocks to Own \u2692\ufe0f\ud83d\udd0c Copper, Lithium &amp; Vanadium\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/kplMBxbQul4?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/capital10x.com\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h1>Russia-Ukraine War: Sanctions Having a Wide Ranging Impact on Commodities<\/h1>\n<p>The unprecedented sanctions on Russia are having a wide-ranging impact across the commodity complex, since the beginning of the conflict the Bloomberg Commodity Index (a basket of 23 commodities) has spiked 10%.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24234\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Bloomberg-commodity-index-march-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1065\" height=\"629\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Bloomberg-commodity-index-march-3.png 1065w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Bloomberg-commodity-index-march-3-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Bloomberg-commodity-index-march-3-1024x605.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Bloomberg-commodity-index-march-3-768x454.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Bloomberg-commodity-index-march-3-696x411.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1065px) 100vw, 1065px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Vital energy commodities have spiked significantly, European natural gas prices are up +153% year-to-date and oil prices are up +44%.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24235\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/europe-gas-and-oil.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1065\" height=\"629\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/europe-gas-and-oil.png 1065w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/europe-gas-and-oil-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/europe-gas-and-oil-1024x605.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/europe-gas-and-oil-768x454.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/europe-gas-and-oil-696x411.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1065px) 100vw, 1065px\" \/><\/p>\n<h1>Russia&#8217;s Significant Positioning in Major Commodities<\/h1>\n<p>Russia is a major producer of many key commodities. Of world production Russia is 12% of oil production, 17% of natural gas, 6% of aluminum, 6% of nickel and 4% of copper.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24218\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/russia-as-a-percent-of-world-supply.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/russia-as-a-percent-of-world-supply.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/russia-as-a-percent-of-world-supply-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/russia-as-a-percent-of-world-supply-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/russia-as-a-percent-of-world-supply-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/russia-as-a-percent-of-world-supply-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/russia-as-a-percent-of-world-supply-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/russia-as-a-percent-of-world-supply-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<h1>Averting a Global Energy Crisis: Green Energy Metals of High Strategic Interest<\/h1>\n<p>The major sanctions on Russia will likely be in effect for a protracted period, the developed world\u2019s key focus will be to avert a global energy crisis.<\/p>\n<p>We highlight three energy green metals of high strategic interest:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Copper<\/li>\n<li>Lithium<\/li>\n<li>Vanadium<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h1>Copper<\/h1>\n<p>Copper is a critical metal for the green economy, a key input for electric vehicles, wind and solar.\u00a0 Goldman Sachs projects green copper demand as a percent of total copper demand will rise from 4% in 2020 to 16% by 2030.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24214\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/copper-rising-green-demand.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/copper-rising-green-demand.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/copper-rising-green-demand-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/copper-rising-green-demand-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/copper-rising-green-demand-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/copper-rising-green-demand-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/copper-rising-green-demand-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/copper-rising-green-demand-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Within the copper mining universe, Sierra Metals (NYSE:SMTS, TSX:SMT) and Hudbay Minerals (TSX:HBM) screen the cheapest.<\/p>\n<h2>Sierra Metals: 70% Discount vs. Peers<\/h2>\n<p>Relative to it&#8217;s small &amp; mid cap copper producer peer group, Sierra Metals trades at a 70% discount on blended valuation fundamentals (forward price-to-cashflow, forward EV\/EBITDA and forward price-to-sales).<\/p>\n<p>Sierra Metals offers a diversified exposure across the metals complex, as of Q3-2021 copper and silver were the top two contributors by revenue, 38% and 21% respectively.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24087\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/sierra-diversified-metal-exposure-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/sierra-diversified-metal-exposure-2.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/sierra-diversified-metal-exposure-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/sierra-diversified-metal-exposure-2-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/sierra-diversified-metal-exposure-2-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/sierra-diversified-metal-exposure-2-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/sierra-diversified-metal-exposure-2-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/sierra-diversified-metal-exposure-2-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Hudbay: 45% Discount vs. Peers<\/h2>\n<p>Hudbay trades at a 45% discount vs copper peers on blended valuation fundamentals (forward price-to-cashflow, forward EV\/EBITDA and forward price-to-sales).<\/p>\n<p>Hudbay is well-positioned on the cash cost curve relative to global copper peers and the company has a strong operational track record.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-23084\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/hudbay-cash-cost.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"461\" height=\"328\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/hudbay-cash-cost.png 461w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/hudbay-cash-cost-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/hudbay-cash-cost-100x70.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 461px) 100vw, 461px\" \/><\/p>\n<h1>Lithium<\/h1>\n<p>Lithium is a foundational metal for the electric vehicle market, strong EV demand puts the market in structural deficit till the end of the decade.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24216\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/lithium-ev-demand-deficit.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/lithium-ev-demand-deficit.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/lithium-ev-demand-deficit-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/lithium-ev-demand-deficit-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/lithium-ev-demand-deficit-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/lithium-ev-demand-deficit-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/lithium-ev-demand-deficit-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/lithium-ev-demand-deficit-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>SQM: 30% Discount to Large Cap Peer Albemarle<\/h2>\n<p>SQM (NYSE:SQM) is the second largest lithium producer in the world behind Albemarle (NYSE:ALB). The company has double the ROE vs ALB (30% vs. 15%) and trades at a 30% discount on forward EV\/EBITDA.<\/p>\n<p>The company announced strong Q4 2021 results, pricing for their lithium has increased 3-fold over the last year.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24239\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/sqm-lithium-volume.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"514\" height=\"497\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/sqm-lithium-volume.png 514w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/sqm-lithium-volume-300x290.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 514px) 100vw, 514px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Lithium Americas: 35% Discount to NPV<\/h2>\n<p>Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC) is pre-production lithium company, with it&#8217;s projects having a sizeable and steady production growth through the end of the decade. It is expected that Lithium America&#8217;s\u00a0 projects should have attractive positions on the cost curve.<\/p>\n<p>Lithium Americas trades at a 35% discount to consensus NPV of $40\/share.<\/p>\n<h1>Vanadium<\/h1>\n<p>Vanadium is the strategic resource efficiency and battery metal, low carbon technology and batteries will drive demand over the next decade.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22287\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/vanadium-key-green-applications.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/vanadium-key-green-applications.jpg 960w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/vanadium-key-green-applications-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/vanadium-key-green-applications-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/vanadium-key-green-applications-696x392.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Projected strong vanadium demand driven by green applications and batteries over the coming decade will result in demand meaningfully outstripping supply over the coming decade.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24217\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/projected-vanadium-supply.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/projected-vanadium-supply.jpg 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/projected-vanadium-supply-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/projected-vanadium-supply-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/projected-vanadium-supply-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/projected-vanadium-supply-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/projected-vanadium-supply-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/projected-vanadium-supply-1392x783.jpg 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Largo: 85% Discount to Life of Mine NPV<\/h2>\n<p>Largo (TSX:LGO, NYSE:LGO) is the vanadium pureplay, it is among the 3 largest producers of the metal. Largo is one of the lowest cost producers in the industry and the company currently trades at an 85% discount to its life of mine NPV ($4.2 billion).<\/p>\n<p>Of important note, the life of mine NPV does not factor in the significant upside in Largo&#8217;s vanadium redox flow battery business.\u00a0 Additionally, Largo trades at a sizeable discount vs. its green metal peers.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24242\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/largo-valuation-vs-peers.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1005\" height=\"557\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/largo-valuation-vs-peers.png 1005w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/largo-valuation-vs-peers-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/largo-valuation-vs-peers-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/largo-valuation-vs-peers-696x386.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1005px) 100vw, 1005px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Russia-Ukraine war is triggering a commodity squeeze, Capital 10X highlights key green metal stocks to own: Copper, Lithium &#038; Vanadium.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":24233,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[281,59],"tags":[76,1796,1803,1728,1714,891,846,1267,1092,893],"class_list":{"0":"post-24230","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-10x-featured-content","8":"category-metals","9":"tag-copper","10":"tag-hbm","11":"tag-hudbay","12":"tag-largo","13":"tag-lgo","14":"tag-lithium","15":"tag-sierra-metals","16":"tag-smts","17":"tag-sqm","18":"tag-vanadium"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>War Triggering a Commodity Squeeze: Own Critical Green Energy Metals | Capital 10X<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Russia-Ukraine war is triggering a commodity squeeze, Capital 10X 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