{"id":23156,"date":"2021-04-18T20:41:24","date_gmt":"2021-04-19T00:41:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=23156"},"modified":"2021-07-25T23:09:38","modified_gmt":"2021-07-26T03:09:38","slug":"markets-metals-navigator-lumber-goes-parabolic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/markets-metals-navigator-lumber-goes-parabolic\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets & Metals Navigator: Lumber Goes Parabolic"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lumber: Demand Overwhelms Tight Supply<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Lumber is the best performing commodity over the last year, up a staggering 290%, and year-to-date it is up 48% only behind Cobalt.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

From a longer term multi-decade perspective the scale of the rise over the last year has been parabolic. Lumber is now $1294.70 per board foot, an astounding 4x higher than the average from the last 40 years ($300 per board foot).<\/p>\n

The physical lumber market remains very tight – the current the price difference between the May 2021 and November 2021 lumber futures contracts is about 22 percent, which isn\u2019t enough of a discount to signal an impending price decline.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The lumber frenzy will likely continue into through the summer peak of home building as depleted inventories and labor shortages mean supply can’t keep up with rocketing demand.<\/p>\n

US Housing Starts<\/h3>\n

The lumber shortage is feeding directly into the prices of houses – soaring wood prices have already added $24K to the price of a new house in the U.S. according to the National Association of Home Builders.<\/p>\n

U.S. housing starts rebounded sharply in March to the highest since 2006, exceeding forecasts and indicating residential construction is getting back on track after a winter storm-related setback.<\/p>\n

Residential starts jumped 19.4% last month to a 1.74 million annualized rate, according to government data released Friday.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Lumber Stocks<\/h3>\n

The only way investors are able to play the rise in lumber prices is through lumber producers, as there isn’t a lumber commodity ETF.<\/p>\n

The major Canadian lumber companies have risen significantly over the last year: Interfor has lead the pack up +428%, followed by Canfor +317, West Fraser +257% and Western Forest +244%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Valuations are elevated but not at extreme levels, West Fraser’s Forward P\/E over the last 5 years has averaged 10.5x vs. its current forward P\/E of 12.4x.<\/p>\n

Capital 10X remains cautious on space, we don’t view lumber as a commodity that has a fundamental supply constraint. However we believe the flow through inflationary impact on construction will be very real and will continue to bid up the rest of the commodity complex.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Largo Resources Heading to the Nasdaq<\/h2>\n

On April 16th Largo Resources (TSX:LGO, NASDAQ:LGO) announced they had received approval to trade on the Nasdaq, shares will commence trading on April 19th under the symbol LGO.<\/p>\n

We believe this is another strong catalyst for the stock as US investors now have a direct way to play the attractive vanadium market through one of the highest quality companies in the space – Largo Resources.<\/p>\n

Capital 10X highlighted the sizable opportunity to invest in the vanadium the strategic green metal in October of last year<\/a> when we initiated on the sector, shares of Largo Resources have doubled since then.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

We believe there remains strong upside ahead in the vanadium market for 3 key reasons:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Stimulus driven infrastructure spending will increase the use of vanadium as it is an alloy in steel manufacturing.<\/li>\n
  2. The growth of green technology applications, specifically vanadium redox flow batteries.<\/li>\n
  3. The strong outlook for vanadium pricing.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Goldman Sachs: Copper is the New Oil<\/h2>\n

    Last week Goldman Sachs released a report to its clients stating that copper will be crucial in achieving decarbonization and replacing oil with renewable energy sources, and right now, the market is facing a supply crunch that could boost the price by more than 60% in four years.<\/p>\n

    Increased demand and likely low supply are set to drive up the price from the current levels of around $9,000 per ton to $15,000 per ton by 2025, the bank said.<\/p>\n

    Goldman projects that green demand for copper will rise from 3% in 2020 to 16% by 2030; this will be driven primarily from growth in the electric vehicle and solar markets.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Last month Capital 10X highlighted the attractiveness of the copper mining sector for investors, specifically small and mid sized miners – as they trade at a 50% discount to their large cap peers.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Sierra Metals (NYSE:SMTS, TSX:SMT) and Hudbay Minerals (TSX:HBM) trade at a deep valuation discount to their small & mid cap copper peers (which are already very cheap vs. large caps).<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    In this week’s Capital 10X Navigator: Lumber goes parabolic, Largo Resources lists on the Nasdaq & Goldman Sachs is very bullish on copper.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":23161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1755,59],"tags":[76,1803,1712,1714,1688,846,847,1267,893],"class_list":{"0":"post-23156","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-growth_navigator","8":"category-metals","9":"tag-copper","10":"tag-hudbay","11":"tag-largo-resources","12":"tag-lgo","13":"tag-lumber","14":"tag-sierra-metals","15":"tag-smt","16":"tag-smts","17":"tag-vanadium"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMarkets & Metals Navigator: Lumber Goes Parabolic | Capital 10X<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this week's Capital 10X Navigator: Lumber goes parabolic, Largo Resources lists on the Nasdaq 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