{"id":22421,"date":"2020-10-23T09:14:50","date_gmt":"2020-10-23T13:14:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=22421"},"modified":"2020-11-25T17:30:42","modified_gmt":"2020-11-25T22:30:42","slug":"copper-miners-leveraged-play-economic-stimulus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/copper-miners-leveraged-play-economic-stimulus\/","title":{"rendered":"Copper Miners are the Leveraged Play on Economic Stimulus"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p>Investor&#8217;s don&#8217;t call copper &#8220;Doctor Copper&#8221; for nothing.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>The metal has historically been a leading indicator of economic growth.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>Copper is in everything, houses, buildings, electronics and has many industrial uses.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>A pick up in economic growth equals more demand for copper, hence the metals stellar economic indicator status.<\/p>\r\n<p><div class=\"youtube-embed\" data-video_id=\"7MKCvaGerFo\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Copper Miners are the Leveraged Play on Economic Stimulus\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7MKCvaGerFo?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1&#038;enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/capital10x.com\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div><\/p>\r\n<h2>Money Printing = Inflation = Own Commodities<\/h2>\r\n<p>In the last two financial crises, Central Banks turned to money printing and large scale asset purchases to stimulate the economy.<\/p>\r\n<figure id=\"attachment_22416\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22416\" style=\"width: 696px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22416 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/TOTAL-ASSETS-V02-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/TOTAL-ASSETS-V02-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/TOTAL-ASSETS-V02-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/TOTAL-ASSETS-V02-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/TOTAL-ASSETS-V02-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/TOTAL-ASSETS-V02-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/TOTAL-ASSETS-V02-1392x783.png 1392w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/TOTAL-ASSETS-V02.png 1820w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22416\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: US Federal Reserve<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p>This stimulus was used to combat high levels of unemployment in the economy, which in turn also benefits the stock market.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>Historical market analysis has shown that when unemployment is above average (recessions), the returns of the S&amp;P 500 are nearly 10% higher than when unemployment is below average (the end of bull markets).<\/p>\r\n<p>We are currently in the more attractive return scenario.<\/p>\r\n<h4>S&amp;P 500 Return Under Different Unemployment Trends<\/h4>\r\n<figure id=\"attachment_22419\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22419\" style=\"width: 1640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22419 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/unemployment-rate-V02.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1640\" height=\"332\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/unemployment-rate-V02.png 1640w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/unemployment-rate-V02-300x61.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/unemployment-rate-V02-1024x207.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/unemployment-rate-V02-768x155.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/unemployment-rate-V02-1536x311.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/unemployment-rate-V02-696x141.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/unemployment-rate-V02-1392x282.png 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1640px) 100vw, 1640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22419\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/awealthofcommonsense.com\/2014\/06\/unemployment-rate-stock-performance\/\">A Wealth of Common Sense<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<h2>How Does Copper Perform?<\/h2>\r\n<p>Looking at past history, when government&#8217;s are printing money and the threat of inflation (loss of purchasing power) is in the air, commodity prices and commodity stocks tend to do quite well.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<h4>Copper Price ($\/lb)<\/h4>\r\n<figure id=\"attachment_22441\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22441\" style=\"width: 896px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22441 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Copper-Price.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"896\" height=\"422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Copper-Price.png 896w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Copper-Price-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Copper-Price-768x362.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Copper-Price-696x328.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 896px) 100vw, 896px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22441\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p>Look at 2009 for example. From the bottom in early 2009 to the peak in 2011, copper mining stocks returned 360%, absolutely crushing the return of the S&amp;P 500 with an outperformance of 180%.<\/p>\r\n<figure id=\"attachment_22412\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22412\" style=\"width: 696px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22412 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-economic-recovery-V05-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-economic-recovery-V05-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-economic-recovery-V05-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-economic-recovery-V05-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-economic-recovery-V05-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-economic-recovery-V05-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-economic-recovery-V05-1392x783.png 1392w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-economic-recovery-V05.png 1820w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22412\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p>Turning to today&#8217;s market, we find that money printing is again good for copper.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>The Global Copper X Miners ETF is outperforming the broader market by 60% year to date.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<figure id=\"attachment_22413\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22413\" style=\"width: 696px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22413 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-SP-CopperX-Miners-V05-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-SP-CopperX-Miners-V05-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-SP-CopperX-Miners-V05-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-SP-CopperX-Miners-V05-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-SP-CopperX-Miners-V05-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-SP-CopperX-Miners-V05-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-SP-CopperX-Miners-V05-1392x783.png 1392w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/stimulus-driven-SP-CopperX-Miners-V05.png 1820w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22413\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p>And most importantly, we don&#8217;t think the opportunity is over for Copper stocks.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<h2>More Upside to Play For<\/h2>\r\n<p>We are still in the early innings of a global economic expansion in our view, driven by unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>Using the 2009 financial crisis as a guide, there is still significant upside to play for in the copper mining stocks, in both relative (vs the market) and absolute terms.<\/p>\r\n<p>Capital10x believes Sierra Metals (NYSE:SMTS, TSX:SMT) and First Quantum (TSX:FM) are the best positioned for gains from a fundamental valuation perspective.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<h2>Miners We Like<\/h2>\r\n<p>Sierra and First Quantum screen cheap on a price to sales basis against larger peers which is a great starting point.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>However, companies can have different margin profiles, so looking at them on a price to cash flow basis is the more powerful and useful metric.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p>Again Sierra and First Quantum look to be value buys with estimated price to cashflow multiples at a 42% and 64% discount to Freeport and Lundin.<\/p>\r\n<p>In commodity investing it pays to buy the discounted miners in a bull market.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n<figure id=\"attachment_22415\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22415\" style=\"width: 696px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-22415 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/2020-10-22-F-PS_F-PCF-V02-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/2020-10-22-F-PS_F-PCF-V02-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/2020-10-22-F-PS_F-PCF-V02-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/2020-10-22-F-PS_F-PCF-V02-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/2020-10-22-F-PS_F-PCF-V02-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/2020-10-22-F-PS_F-PCF-V02-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/2020-10-22-F-PS_F-PCF-V02-1392x783.png 1392w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/2020-10-22-F-PS_F-PCF-V02.png 1820w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22415\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p>With another round of stimulus almost guaranteed in the coming months, the best is likely still to come for copper the metal, and the companies that mine it.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economic indicators are pointing to more strong gains ahead for Copper stocks. Investors just have to know where to look.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":22418,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[281,56,59],"tags":[212,1683,1684,1730,885,884,846,847,1267],"class_list":{"0":"post-22421","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-10x-featured-content","8":"category-featured","9":"category-metals","10":"tag-fcx","11":"tag-first-quantum","12":"tag-fm","13":"tag-freeport","14":"tag-lun","15":"tag-lundin-mining","16":"tag-sierra-metals","17":"tag-smt","18":"tag-smts"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Copper Miners are the Leveraged Play on Economic Stimulus | Capital 10X<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Economic indicators are pointing to more strong gains ahead for Copper stocks. 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