{"id":22084,"date":"2020-08-07T07:48:02","date_gmt":"2020-08-07T11:48:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=22084"},"modified":"2020-08-07T09:38:42","modified_gmt":"2020-08-07T13:38:42","slug":"copper-the-catch-up-inflation-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/copper-the-catch-up-inflation-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Copper &#8211; The Catch Up Inflation Trade"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"width: 696px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-22084-1\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" poster=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-catch-up-trade-cover-V02.jpg\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2020-08-06-Copper-catch-up-trade-FNL_V02.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2020-08-06-Copper-catch-up-trade-FNL_V02.mp4\">https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2020-08-06-Copper-catch-up-trade-FNL_V02.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<h2>Inflation Hedges: Gold, Silver &amp; Copper<\/h2>\n<p>Historically gold, silver and copper have traded together (see graph below); this relationship exists because all three metals are hedges against inflation.<\/p>\n<p>In this context we can see that both copper and silver have lagged gold in the recent monetary stimulus driven gold bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22078\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-in-focus.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-in-focus.png 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-in-focus-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-in-focus-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-in-focus-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-in-focus-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-in-focus-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-in-focus-1392x783.png 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The massive increase in monetary expansion initiated by the Federal Reserve in the wake of the lockdowns imposed to address Covid-19 is the main reason to own hard assets like gold, silver and copper.<\/p>\n<p>Money supply growth (M2) is rising at its most rapid rate since the monthly data series began in 1959.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22077\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/us-money-suppy-growth.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/us-money-suppy-growth.png 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/us-money-suppy-growth-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/us-money-suppy-growth-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/us-money-suppy-growth-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/us-money-suppy-growth-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/us-money-suppy-growth-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/us-money-suppy-growth-1392x783.png 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Copper and copper miners have had a strong rally off the bottom, however they significantly lag gold and gold miners.\u00a0 The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) is up 52% year-to-date while copper focused mining companies are on average flat on a year-to-date basis.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22079\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-gold-gold_miners.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-gold-gold_miners.png 1820w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-gold-gold_miners-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-gold-gold_miners-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-gold-gold_miners-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-gold-gold_miners-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-gold-gold_miners-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/copper-gold-gold_miners-1392x783.png 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1820px) 100vw, 1820px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We believe this presents a meaningful &#8220;catch-up&#8221; trade opportunity in these copper focused mining stocks.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally copper continues challenged on the supply side; with a slower-than-expected return to full production in Peru and the possibility of labor disruptions in Chile adding to supply concerns.<\/p>\n<h2>Examining the Valuations of Copper Miners<\/h2>\n<p>On a forward price-to-sales basis (analyst consensus) Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN) and Freeport (NYSE:FCX) are the most expensive; while First Quantum (TSX:FM) and Sierra Metals (NYSE:SMTS; TSX:SMT) are trading at the most attractive valuations.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22081\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/P-S.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1844\" height=\"329\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/P-S.png 1844w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/P-S-300x54.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/P-S-1024x183.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/P-S-768x137.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/P-S-1536x274.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/P-S-696x124.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/P-S-1392x248.png 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1844px) 100vw, 1844px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>On a trailing 12 month price-to-cash flow basis Lundin Mining and Freeport are once again significantly more expensive than First Quantum and Sierra Metals.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22080\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trailing-price-cash-flow.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1844\" height=\"333\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trailing-price-cash-flow.png 1844w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trailing-price-cash-flow-300x54.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trailing-price-cash-flow-1024x185.png 1024w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trailing-price-cash-flow-768x139.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trailing-price-cash-flow-1536x277.png 1536w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trailing-price-cash-flow-696x126.png 696w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trailing-price-cash-flow-1392x251.png 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1844px) 100vw, 1844px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s clear based on historical fundamentals there\u2019s a catch-up trade in copper relative to gold, additionally there are very meaningful supply constraints.<\/p>\n<p>Among the copper miners First quantum and Sierra Metals are the most attractive on a valuation basis.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Copper has lagged gold during the recent monetary stimulus driven gold bull market; both metals provide protection vs. inflation. Sierra Metals and First Quantum are two copper miners with the most attractive valuations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":17309,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,69],"tags":[76,212,1683,1684,211,1591,104,885,884,846,848,1633,847,1267],"class_list":{"0":"post-22084","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-video","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-metals","8":"category-videos","9":"tag-copper","10":"tag-fcx","11":"tag-first-quantum","12":"tag-fm","13":"tag-freeport-mcmoran","14":"tag-gld","15":"tag-gold","16":"tag-lun","17":"tag-lundin-mining","18":"tag-sierra-metals","19":"tag-silver","20":"tag-slv","21":"tag-smt","22":"tag-smts","23":"post_format-post-format-video"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Copper - The Catch Up Inflation Trade | Capital 10X<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Copper has lagged gold during the recent monetary stimulus driven gold bull market; both metals provide protection vs. inflation. 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