{"id":21138,"date":"2020-02-18T16:50:50","date_gmt":"2020-02-18T21:50:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=21138"},"modified":"2020-02-21T08:55:17","modified_gmt":"2020-02-21T13:55:17","slug":"copper-mountain-cmmc-reports-2019-year-end-financials","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/copper-mountain-cmmc-reports-2019-year-end-financials\/","title":{"rendered":"Copper Mountain (CMMC) Reports 2019 Year End Financials &#8211; Catalysts Visible"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Copper Mountain<\/strong> (TSX: CMMC) reported Q4 financial results and provided 2020 production guidance. While the reaction has been muted, we believe this copper miner has substantial long-term potential.<\/p>\n<p>For unfamiliar investors, <a href=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/tag\/copper-mountain\/\">Copper Mountain<\/a> is a mid-tier copper miner with assets in Canada and Australia. While copper is their primary metal, they also produce small amounts of gold and silver.<\/p>\n<p>Their primary asset is the Copper Mountain copper mine in British Columbia, in which they hold a 75% ownership stake. They are also developing the Eva Copper project in Australia, which is due for an updated feasibility study in 2020 Q1.<\/p>\n<h2>Our Take<\/h2>\n<p>From an investment perspective, Copper Mountain meets two important criteria:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Cheap on a P\/NAV basis<\/li>\n<li>Assets in safe jurisdictions (Canada, Australia)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Looking at their peers, they are the cheapest mid-tier copper miner with a P\/NAV of 0.23x.<\/p>\n<h4>Price to NAV<\/h4>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21139\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21139\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21139\" src=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Copper-Miners-P-NAV-Feb-18-2020.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Copper-Miners-P-NAV-Feb-18-2020.png 800w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Copper-Miners-P-NAV-Feb-18-2020-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Copper-Miners-P-NAV-Feb-18-2020-768x513.png 768w, https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Copper-Miners-P-NAV-Feb-18-2020-696x465.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21139\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Company Filings, Capital 10X Estimates. *Sierra Metals generates approximately 50% of revenue from Copper, with significant Silver (23%) and Zinc components.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Their biggest detractor, substantial debt on the balance sheet, could translate to an excellent leveraged play on rising copper prices over the medium to long term.<\/p>\n<div class=\"su-pullquote su-pullquote-align-right\">Given the recent softness in the pricing of copper miners, this could be an excellent opportunity to build a position to capitalize on the medium to long term growth in the copper price.<\/div>\n<p>Admittedly, 2020 copper prices are unclear at this time given the unknown effects of the coronavirus and the uncertainty in global growth this has created. However, the long-term structural factors for the increase in <a href=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/copper-price-to-rise-as-market-moves-into-deficit-in-2019-21\/\">copper price<\/a> remain. Electrification on a global scale will generate a meaningful supply deficit for <a href=\"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/copper-prices-struggle-headwinds\/\">copper<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Given the recent softness in the pricing of copper miners, this could be an excellent opportunity to build a position to capitalize on the medium to long term growth in the copper price.<\/p>\n<p>With the debt due in portions spit across 2020-2023, Copper Mountain should realize the benefits of increased copper pricing, creating an investment opportunity with significant torque.<\/p>\n<p>Looking more closely at their assets, CMMC updated reserves and resources for their Copper Mountain mine in the quarter, with increases of 12% and 9%. However, on the year, mine life was increased from 17 years to 31 years on the back of a 127% increase in reserves.<\/p>\n<p>Their Eva Project in Australia also saw increased resources in the quarter and an updated feasibility study for the project is expected in 2020 Q1.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at guidance, the company is guiding to nearly a 25% increase in copper equivalent production at the mid-point. Costs are being guided significantly lower year over year.<\/p>\n<p>As we progress through 2020, investors should watch closely for signs that execution is progressing as expected. If costs remain on track, this will be an excellent sign for CMMC.<\/p>\n<p>Further, they are expanding mill throughput from 40,000 tpd to 45,000 tpd and increasing recoveries, which should help improve mine economics. However, the benefits likely won&#8217;t be realized until 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, we like the catalysts on the horizon for Copper Mountain. While operational performance has been challenged recently, management is indicating there are brighter days ahead.<\/p>\n<p>The debt on their balance sheet is concerning, however, we believe this creates a solid leveraged play in long-term copper strength. Notably, this does make CMMC a more risky investment whose stock price more closely tracks that of copper.<\/p>\n<p>On a positive note, additional colour provided by management during the conference call de-risked some of the debt.<\/p>\n<p>The term loan portion of their long-term debt is guaranteed by Mitsubishi with an agreement in place for Mitsubishi to cover upcoming payments, reducing the burden on CMMC. Further, the short-term notes with Mitsubishi (now converted to long-term debt) are very flexible, where payments will be made only when mine cash is flowing.<\/p>\n<p>As 2020 progresses and the company demonstrates they can execute on their guidance, Copper Mountain could become a very attractive investment.<\/p>\n<h2>Operational and Financial Results<\/h2>\n<p>On a year-over-year basis, Copper Mountain saw copper production decrease 10% to 71.95 Mlb as the company worked through low-grade zones. Gold and Silver production saw a slightly smaller decrease year over year.<\/p>\n<p>2019 Cash costs ($1.92\/lb) and AISC ($2.06\/lb) were notably higher in Q4 and 2019 than 2018 ($1.77\/lb, $1.94\/lb) due to higher unit costs from reduced grade and mine developments. Looking forward, CMMC is guiding to cash costs of $1.375\/lb and $1.50\/lb at the midpoint for 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at the financials, Copper Mountain generated $288.5 million in revenue in 2019 compared to $296 million in 2018 (3% decrease). The stronger revenue generation (relatively, compared to production) was due in part to stronger gold prices.<\/p>\n<p>On the year, CMMC generated $25 million in gross profit and $30.4 in adjusted EBITDA, led largely by strong operating performance in 2019 Q1. The net loss on the year was -$25.9 million, driven by the one-time $48.7 stockpile write-down.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at balance sheet health, Copper Mountain is sitting with $32.1 million in cash. On the year, their net CFO was $51.2 million, with a CFI of -$47.6 million.<\/p>\n<p>While they had working capital of -$112 million, subsequent to year-end, $101 million was moved from a current liability into long-term debt. The lender, Mitsubishi Materials Corporation (owner of the remaining 25% stake in Copper Mountain), agreed to extend the notes to June of 2023. This leaves CMMC with working capital of -$11.1 million.<\/p>\n<p>While the CMMC did record a stockpile write-down of $48.8 million, this was due do the movement of low-grade stockpiled to 2038. After releasing the reserve and resource update, the company was required to adjust the value of the stockpile on a time-value basis, resulting in the one-time write down.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Copper Mountain (TSX: CMMC) reported year-end financial results and 2020 guidance. While their balance sheet is weighed with debt, catalysts are visible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":17306,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[1526,208,1525,188,299,859,146],"class_list":{"0":"post-21138","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-metals","8":"tag-cmmc","9":"tag-company-news","10":"tag-copper-mountain","11":"tag-earnings","12":"tag-guidance","13":"tag-metals","14":"tag-mining"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Copper Mountain (CMMC) Reports 2019 Year End Financials - Catalysts Visible | Capital 10X<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Copper Mountain (TSX: CMMC) reported year-end financial results and 2020 guidance. 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