{"id":15487,"date":"2019-03-12T12:47:11","date_gmt":"2019-03-12T16:47:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=15487"},"modified":"2019-03-12T12:49:26","modified_gmt":"2019-03-12T16:49:26","slug":"painted-pony-energy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/painted-pony-energy\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Painted Pony Energy Capable of Delivering More Upside?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Painted Pony Energy<\/strong> [stock_market_widget type=\"inline\" template=\"generic\" color=\"default\" assets=\"PONY.TO\" markup=\"(TSE: {symbol} {currency_symbol}{price} ({change_pct}))\" api=\"yf\"] has made an impressive start to 2019 as its shares have risen more than 16% so far this year, driven by the company\u2019s solid fourth-quarter results that were released early March.<\/p>\n

The Calgary-based company\u2019s record adjusted funds flow performance and a nice increase in the reserve profile have won investors over. But will it be able to sustain this momentum for the remainder of the year? Let\u2019s find out.<\/p>\n

Impressive Production Growth is Driving Results<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Painted Pony\u2019s average daily production increased<\/a> 35% in 2018 to 57,879 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE\/day). This was at the higher end of its original production guidance range of 56,500 BOE\/day to 58,000 BOE\/day. The company also enjoyed a 12% increase in the average realized price after taking into account the effect of derivatives.<\/p>\n

The combination of higher production and pricing boosted the company\u2019s adjusted funds flow from operations to C$175 million in 2018 as compared to $109 million in the preceding year. This was despite a 20% rise in costs per Mcfe. The company attributes the higher pricing to its \u201cdiversified marketing strategy which captured strong pricing at both the Dawn hub in southern Ontario and the Sumas sales hub in southern BC during the fourth quarter of 2018.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 2018 the company’s revenue rose a massive 62% to C$404.4 million and realized commodity prices increased 20% to C$3.19\/Mcfe.<\/div>\n

More importantly, the increase in Painted Pony\u2019s adjusted funds flow helped it reduce its debt by 10%, or C$37 million, in the fourth quarter of 2018. So, barring a rise in costs, Painted Pony delivered a really solid performance in 2018. Its revenue rose a massive 62% to C$404.4 million and realized commodity prices increased 20% to C$3.19\/Mcfe.<\/p>\n

Focusing on Efficiency <\/strong><\/h2>\n

An important highlight of Painted Pony\u2019s 2018 performance was that its impressive production increase was achieved with a reduction of nearly 50% in capital expenditures. The company\u2019s capex for 2018 came in at C$154.4 million, down from C$302.6 million in the prior-year period.<\/p>\n

Painted Pony will continue following its disciplined capital approach in 2019 as well, though that will impact its production growth. More specifically, the company aims to produce between 54,000 BOE\/day and 56,000 BOE\/day, which would be a slight drop over last year\u2019s output, with capex ranging between C$95 million and C$110 million.<\/p>\n

So, Painted Pony is going to slash its capex by a third this year and still achieve production figures that will be nearly consistent with last year. The company is taking this step in order to fully fund its capital expenses through the funds flow generated from operations. That\u2019s a smart move from Painted Pony considering that it carries C$842 million in debt on the balance sheet<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, the company is banking on an increase in natural gas prices to drive growth. Since the time it released its 2019 capex guidance in December last year, the spot price of AECO daily 5A natural gas has increased 47% as compared to the forward strip price prevalent at the time of the guidance.<\/p>\n

But the risk of lower natural gas prices still hovers over Painted Pony. Canadian natural gas prices have declined<\/a> sharply of late thanks to an oversupply, which has been exacerbated by a lack of egress capacity. As such, natural gas pricing will play a key role in determining Painted Pony\u2019s fortunes this year.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why investors need to keep an eye on where Canadian natural gas prices are heading as that will dictate Painted Pony\u2019s capability of delivering more upside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Production efficiency and lower costs could be a tailwind for Painted Pony (TSE: PONY) in 2019. Read this stock report for more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":14756,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[208,192,305,395,397],"class_list":{"0":"post-15487","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energy","8":"tag-company-news","9":"tag-energy-stocks","10":"tag-oil-and-gas","11":"tag-painted-pony-energy","12":"tag-pony"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs Painted Pony Energy Capable of Delivering More Upside? | Capital 10X<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Production efficiency and lower costs could be a tailwind for Painted Pony (TSE: PONY) in 2019. 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