{"id":15425,"date":"2019-03-11T10:32:07","date_gmt":"2019-03-11T14:32:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=15425"},"modified":"2019-03-11T10:59:43","modified_gmt":"2019-03-11T14:59:43","slug":"turnaround-athabasca-oil-ath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/turnaround-athabasca-oil-ath\/","title":{"rendered":"Is a Turnaround in Sight for Athabasca Oil?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Athabasca Oil<\/strong> [stock_market_widget type=\"inline\" template=\"generic\" color=\"default\" assets=\"ATH\" markup=\"(TSE: {symbol} {currency_symbol}{price} ({change_pct}))\" api=\"yf\"] has been reduced to a penny stock in the past few months as investor confidence in the company has taken a big beating thanks to lower oil prices. That\u2019s not surprising as the oil pricing weakness has wrecked the company\u2019s financial profile as its latest results indicate.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a closer look at Athabasca\u2019s performance for the fourth quarter of 2018 and for the full year, and see if there\u2019s any hope for a turnaround going forward.<\/p>\n

A Forgettable Performance for ATH<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Athabasca\u2019s fourth-quarter petroleum and natural gas consolidated production averaged 37,984 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 42,064 BOE\/day in the prior-year period. Though the production decline wasn\u2019t a big one, Athabasca swung to an operating loss of $53 million during the quarter as compared to a profit of $65 million a year ago.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s because the oversupply<\/a> in the Canadian energy<\/a> industry led to extremely high differentials in Western Canadian Select (WCS) heavy and Edmonton light differentials, which rose to record levels of $55 per barrel and $35 per barrel last quarter. So, the lack of egress capacity in the Canadian energy space sent the price of oil and other energy commodities spiraling, and this negatively impacted Athabasca.<\/p>\n

In fact, Athabasca\u2019s operating netback per barrel of oil equivalent fell to a negative $14.80 as compared to a positive figure of $17.25 in the prior-year period. For the full year, the company\u2019s operating netback fell to $6.52 per barrel of oil equivalent as compared to $14.06 in the prior-year period.<\/p>\n

Athabasca will be more disciplined this year, though that doesn\u2019t guarantee a turnaround.<\/div>\n

The lower netback also impacted Athabasca\u2019s funds flow profile as the company\u2019s capital expenditure wasn\u2019t scaled back enough to counter the low prices. As a result, the company recorded adjusted funds flow of just $6.2 million as compared to the prior-year period\u2019s figure of $102.1 million. Not surprisingly, Athabasca will be more disciplined this year, though that doesn\u2019t guarantee a turnaround.<\/p>\n

More Weakness Ahead<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Athabasca plans to spend between $95 million and $110 million as capital expenses this year to clock production between<\/a> 37,500 and 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That\u2019s quite impressive considering that Athabasca produced 39,203 BOE\/day last year with a capital budget of $194 million.<\/p>\n

So, Athabasca\u2019s production will remain consistent year over year even though the company will substantially cut its capital outlay. That should allow the company to spend within its means and generate positive funds flow.<\/p>\n

However, the unintended effects<\/a> of the Alberta government\u2019s mandated production cuts don\u2019t guarantee a recovery at Athabasca. Though the government\u2019s directive of reducing production by 325,000 bpd has narrowed the pricing differentials, it has also led to a halt in shipments of crude by rail to the U.S.<\/p>\n

So there\u2019s a chance that the Alberta government\u2019s move might backfire and the oversupply in the Canadian oil market persists. In that case, Athabasca won\u2019t be turning around this year. However, the Alberta government is taking steps<\/a> to boost shipments of crude oil by rail, which will come into effect later this year.<\/p>\n

If those plans work, there\u2019s a chance that Athabasca will benefit from an improvement in oil prices. But it would be advisable for investors to wait for concrete signs of a turnaround before taking a call on Athabasca.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alberta’s mandated production cuts could scupper Athabasca Oil’s (TSE: ATH.TO) turnaround in 2019.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":14390,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[377,370,208,192,305],"class_list":{"0":"post-15425","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energy","8":"tag-ath","9":"tag-athabasca-oil","10":"tag-company-news","11":"tag-energy-stocks","12":"tag-oil-and-gas"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs a Turnaround in Sight for Athabasca Oil? 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