{"id":13976,"date":"2019-02-07T08:57:43","date_gmt":"2019-02-07T13:57:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/?p=13976"},"modified":"2019-03-19T10:11:04","modified_gmt":"2019-03-19T14:11:04","slug":"imperial-oil-stock-price-imo-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capital10x.com\/old\/imperial-oil-stock-price-imo-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"How Rising Oil Prices Could Hurt Imperial Oil’s Stock in 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Calgary-based Imperial Oil (TSX:\u00a0[stock_market_widget type=”inline” template=”generic” color=”default” assets=”IMO.TO” markup=”{symbol} {currency_symbol}{price} ({change_pct})” api=”yf”]) closed 2018 on a strong note operationally, but it’s stock price has sunk.<\/p>\n

In 2018 the company\u2019s top and bottom lines increased substantially over the prior-year period, primarily due to the strength in its downstream business, according to its fourth-quarter and full-year results that were released on Feb. 1. However, despite that, Imperial Oil investors had a torrid time toward the end of 2018 as the stock lost a quarter of its value from October to December 2018 thanks to the massive drop in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price.<\/p>\n[stock_market_widget type=”chart” template=”basic” color=”blue” assets=”IMO.TO” range=”6mo” interval=”1wk” axes=”true” cursor=”true” api=”yf”]\n

The question remains, will the company\u2019s latest results trigger a turnaround in its fortunes? Let\u2019s find out.<\/p>\n

Imperial Oil Shows Positive Upstream Increases<\/h2>\n

Imperial Oil\u2019s upstream revenue increased 16.5% annually in 2018 to C$11.1 billion, accounting for just over 31% of the total top line. The year-over-year increase in the upstream business was the result of a substantial jump in the WTI oil price, which averaged US$65.03 per barrel last year as compared to US$50.85 a barrel in 2017.<\/p>\n

Imperial Oil is now looking to boost production at Kearl to 240,000 bpd by 2020.<\/div>\n

The record annual gross production of 206,000 barrels per day at Kearl played an important role in helping Imperial Oil maintain its annual production profile and push revenue higher. The company ended 2018 with gross-equivalent oil production<\/a> of 383,000 barrels per day (bpd), which was a slight increase from 2017\u2019s output of 375,000 bpd.<\/p>\n

In all, a mix of higher upstream production and strong pricing helped Imperial Oil slash its upstream net loss to C$138 million for the entire year as compared to C$706 million in 2017.<\/p>\n

Imperial Oil is now looking to boost production at Kearl to 240,000 bpd by 2020, which shouldn\u2019t be difficult given the pace at which this asset\u2019s output has increased. Kearl was averaging 217,000 bpd of production in the fourth quarter of 2018, up from 176,000 bpd in the prior-year quarter. This increase was driven by Imperial\u2019s focus on increasing piping durability and feed management and can be sustained in the long-term.<\/p>\n

This could provide a boost to the company\u2019s upstream business going forward, especially considering that oil prices<\/a> have started trending higher recently after a dip in the final quarter of 2018. The possibility of a settlement between the U.S. and China, as well as supply chain actions pledged by OPEC and its partners to reduce production by 1.2 million bpd could keep WTI crude at $66 a barrel, according to JP Morgan Chase.<\/p>\n

Imperial Oil’s 2018 Downstream Operations<\/h2>\n

Imperial Oil\u2019s downstream revenue shot up 21% annually in 2018 to C$26.8 billion, boosting the segment\u2019s net income to C$2.36 billion from C$1.04 billion in 2017. The company\u2019s downstream business supplied 76% of the total revenue and nearly all of its net income last year.<\/p>\n

Just over C$1.5 billion of the downstream profit was a result of higher refining margins, which were aided by low-cost feedstocks and an increase in refinery throughput. Imperial Oil\u2019s 2018 refinery throughput averaged 392,000 bpd as compared to 383,000 bpd in 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>What’s in store for 2019?<\/p>\n

Rising Oil Prices Bring Unexpected Bad News<\/h2>\n

Paradoxically, rising oil prices are a threat to Imperial Oil\u2019s downstream margins. The Alberta government\u2019s decision to mandate production cuts to ease the supply glut has led to a recent rise in oil prices, causing an increase in feedstock costs for Imperial Oil.<\/p>\n

Additionally, the company has been forced to suspend crude movements<\/a> by rail thanks to mandated production<\/a> cuts that make rail uneconomical due to higher Canadian heavy oil prices. Imperial Oil slashed rail shipments by almost half in January to 90,000 bpd, and plans to reduce them to nearly zero in February.<\/p>\n

So, there\u2019s a very real possibility that the company\u2019s upstream and downstream businesses will take a hit in the near-term, explaining why Imperial Oil’s stock price fell after the company\u2019s seemingly positive report.<\/p>\n

In all, it is likely that the stock will continue remaining under pressure because of its heavy reliance on the downstream business, which is set to be negatively impacted by the recent rise in crude oil prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO) showed strong upstream and downstream performance in 2018, but it’s stock faces pressure in 2019 due to rising oil prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":14215,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[208,125,124,114],"class_list":{"0":"post-13976","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energy","8":"tag-company-news","9":"tag-imo","10":"tag-imperial-oil","11":"tag-oil-production"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow Rising Oil Prices Could Hurt Imperial Oil's Stock in 2019 (TSX: IMO)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO) showed strong upstream and downstream performance in 2018, but it's stock faces pressure in 2019 due to rising oil prices.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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