Ecora 1H 2025 Results: Royalty Inflection on Track

Ecora Resources PLC (LSE:ECOR)(TSX:ECOR)(OTCQX:ECRAF) announced half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2025 which are available on the Group’s website at www.ecora-resources.com and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

Highlights:

Base metals royalties grew 81% year over year compares to the first half of 2024. The transition from a coal royalty company to a base and critical minerals one is on track.
Trading at a 50% discount to an NAV that already excludes major growth projects in copper and uranium with expected startup post 2030.
Subsequent to quarter end sold a gold royalty for 3.3x carrying value, cutting debt outstanding by 13%. Ecora now has borrowing room to sign additional royalties if needed.

Bottom Line:

Ecora is going through a rapid transformation from a coal royalty company to a critical minerals royalty company. Coal will decline from 75% of income in 2023 to an estimated 10% in 2026 driving a rerating of the current 10-70% discount to peers and 50% discount to NAV.

Royalty volumes are still on track to rise in 2025 before ramping rapidly in 2026 and beyond.

Royalty growth of 80% is expected over the next five years, driven by exposure to future facing commodities such as nickel, copper, cobalt, rare earths and uranium.

Ecora investor’s have multiple ways to generate market beating returns:

Stock appreciation driven by rising earnings
Stock appreciation through a multiple rerating
A rising return of capital to shareholders through dividends and buyback

Royalty Income Expected to Grow 80% by 2030

Ecora trades at a deeply discounted coal royalty multiple but from a growth perspective is already a copper and critical minerals royalty company, offering significant rerating potential for current investors in the next 12-24 months.

Ecora at a 50% NAV Discount to Peers

Even if the multiple stays where it is, the stock could still double given management is expecting a doubling of EBITDA by 2027.

Half Year Management Commentary

The continued growth from our critical minerals portfolio is the highlight of these results, with our base metals portfolio delivering an 81% increase in contributions compared to the same period last year. This growth has been driven by the strong on-going ramp up at Voisey’s Bay, the acquisition of a copper stream over the producing Mimbula copper mine, and record performance at the Mantos Blancos copper mine.

We were delighted, post period end, to unlock significant value through the sale of the non-core, development stage Dugbe gold royalty, with total consideration of up to $20m. The $16.5m we will receive at close enables us to accelerate the Group’s deleveraging and provides further flexibility to acquire cash generative royalties in our targeted commodity basket in time.

2025 is proving to be a significant year for Ecora as we continue to pivot towards a revenue profile underpinned by a growing critical minerals portfolio, with copper at its core.Marc Bishop Lafleche, CEO, Ecora Resources PLC

Financial Highlights:

Total portfolio contribution in H1 2025 of $17.9m (H1 2024: $51.3m) with royalty and metal stream related revenue in H1 2025 of $15.8 million (H1 2024: $49.5 million), the decrease period-on-period reflects timing difference in the Group’s mining area at Kestrel (FY 2025: weighted to H2, FY 2024 weighted to H1)
81% increase in our base metals portfolio contribution of $8.7m (H1 2024: $4.8m)
Adjusted earnings per share in H1 2025 of 1.27c (H1 2024: 10.38c)
Loss before tax in H1 2025 of $10.9m (H1 2024: profit $17.9m) reflects the timing of Kestrel volumes as outlined above
Net debt increased at 30 June 2025 to $124.6m (31 December 2024: $82.3m), following the Mimbula acquisition, resulting in a leverage ratio of 2.5x (31 December 2024: 1.5x)
Proforma net debt as at 30 June 2025 adjusted for the proceeds to be received from the sale of the Dugbe royalty of $16.5m, is $108.1m; cash flow expected to be generated in H2 2025 should drive further deleveraging
Interim dividend of 0.60 cents per share, equating to ~ 25% of free cash flow

HY 2025 Summary Table

Portfolio Highlights:

Base metals

Voisey’s Bay (cobalt):
- 140 tonnes of cobalt received in H1 2025, up 150% (H1 2024: 56 tonnes) as the ramp up of the underground mine continues to perform strongly
- Average sales price realisation in H1 2025 of $16.5/lb (H1 2024: $16.0/lb)
- Alloy grade prices have increased from $14.0/lb at the start of the period to $19.1/lb at the end of June 2025 as a result of the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo imposing export restrictions, which have been extended to September 2025 when an announcement on a longer-term price support mechanism is expected
- 140 tonnes of attributable cobalt has been received in Q3 2025 to date, taking the current volume received YTD to 280 tonnes. The Group is narrowing its full year 2025 guidance from between 335 and 390 tonnes to between 365 and 390 tonnes
- Planned maintenance period at Voisey’s Bay mine scheduled for September 2025, with Long Harbour Processing Plant maintenance period to follow during Q4 2025
Mantos Blancos (copper):
- A record six-month portfolio contribution of $3.8m was generated in H1 2025 (H1 2024: $2.8m) following the successful completion of a debottlenecking project in H2 2024, payable copper volumes increased to 26.3kt (H1 2024: 20.3kt; H2 2024: 22.9k)
- Since achieving designed sulphide mill throughput capacity in November 2024, the plant has met or exceeded the design capacity in seven of the eight months up to the end of July 2025
- 2025 production is trending towards the upper end of Capstone Copper’s production guidance (49-59kt)
Mimbula (copper):
- A stream over the Mimbula copper mine was acquired in February 2025 for $50m
- The Group receives its copper entitlement under the stream in the quarter following production, as a result FY 25 will have portfolio contribution for three quarters

Phase II expansion continues to advance, with the crusher installation now complete and in commissioning; exploration drilling ongoing at the site

Development Projects

Santo Domingo (copper)

Capstone, the project owner and operator, has been advancing discussions with potential minority partners at the project level, recently announcing that it expects to announce a partner in Q3 2025
A potential project sanctioning decision is not expected prior to mid-2026

West Musgrave (nickel and copper)

·BHP reiterated that it intends to review the decision to temporarily suspend its Western Australian Nickel (WAN) unit by February 2027; in July 2025 it stated for the first time that as part of the review it will assess the potential divestment of the WAN assets

Nifty (copper)

Cyprium Metals, operator of the project, has made significant progress towards first production of the Cathode Project and is targeting Phase 1 project sanction and final investment decision in Q3 2025
In August 2025, Cyprium announced a A$80m capital raising, the funds raised will be used to execute the phase one Cathode Project, strengthen the balance sheet, and complete the feasibility study for the Concentrate Project
Royalty payments to Ecora are not triggered until cumulative 800kt of copper has been produced from the mine, taking into account historical copper production this threshold is not expected to be reached until at least 5 years from production restarting

Caňariaco (copper)

Alta Copper, owner of project, announced a CA$1.5m private placing with Nascent Exploration Pty. LTD, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fortescue Ltd., which increased Fortescue’s holding in Alta Copper Corp to 35.9%
Alta Copper is now focusing on preparations for a drilling programme over the Caňariaco Sur and Quebrada Verde areas

Specialty metals & uranium

Maracás Menchen (vanadium)

Sales volumes at Maracás Menchen were 6.5Mlbs (H1 2024: 10.1Mlbs). Production volumes in Q2 2025 of 5.0Mlbs were up 74% on Q1 2025 as a result of the operational turnaround plan undertaken by the operator, Largo Inc., the results of which have been improved production volumes, higher recoveries and enhanced mine access to support future production
The average realised sales price for royalty payments was $7.47/lb in H1 2025 (H1 2024: $6.59/lb)

McClean Lake (uranium)

Production from the Cigar Lake mine, which feeds the McClean Lake Mill, totalled 10Mlbs in H12025, Cameco has a period of maintenance scheduled in H2 2025 and is on track to hit full year guidance of 18Mlbs

Four Mile (uranium)

Generated $0.9m of portfolio contribution in H1 2025 (H1 2024: $1.4m) as normal sales operations resumed following a period in H2 2024 of stockpiling inventory

Development and early stage

Phalaborwa (rare earths)

Rare earths have increased in strategic significance as part of the ongoing realignment of the longstanding global trade order and the establishment of an independent supply chain is a focal point for the US, the EU and aligned countries
In August, Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd, owner of the project, announced that tests have delivered an exceptionally pure mixed rare earth product that delivers a mixed rare earth carbonate average >55% total rare earth oxides (TREO), considerably exceeding the rare earth industry’s typical refinery specification of > 42% TREO

A Definitive Feasibility Study is progressing well, and Rainbow is aiming to release the DFS before the end of 2025

Patterson Corridor East (uranium)

NexGen Energy continues to report exciting results from the drilling programme Patterson Corridor East
Assays returned from the discovery show intercepts ranking amongst the world’s highest grade for basement hosted uranium vein projects
Further drilling is planned throughout the rest of 2025
In July 2025, NexGen acquired Rio Tinto’s 10% production carried interest over 39 NexGen owned mineral claims (which mirror the mineral claims covered by Ecora’s royalty interests) including those hosting the Patterson Corridor East discovery giving NexGen 100% ownership of its entire portfolio

Bulks and other

Kestrel (steelmaking coal)

Mining activity at Kestel remained outside of the Group’s private royalty area for the majority of H1 2025, with only 400kt of saleable volumes registered
Operations returned to the Group’s private royalty area at the end of Q2 2025 and are expected to remain in the Group’s royalty area throughout Q3 2025 and into Q4 2025 with FY guidance for Ecora’s attributable volumes remaining unchanged at 2.2mt – 2.3mt

Outlook

The growth in volumes from the critical minerals portfolio is set to continue through the second half of the year with Voisey’s Bay performing strongly and the Mimbula mine continuing to ramp up
The lower end of the Voisey’s Bay FY 2025 guidance increased from 335-390t of attributable cobalt to 365-390t of attributable cobalt
Acceleration of the US government’s critical minerals strategy including sizeable equity investments, debt financing and growing stockpile of strategic minerals
- US Department of Defense to tender for purchase of up to $500m of alloy grade cobalt stockpile over five years which could drive higher price levels; only four qualifying producers including Vale’s Voisey’s Bay mine
- The tier one Phalaborwa rare earths project, with an existing indirect US government ownership, is well positioned to benefit from the US Department of Defense’s active approach to securing rare earths supply
With mining at Kestrel returning to the Group’s private royalty area, H2 2025 will also see a much stronger total portfolio contribution relative to H1 2025
Mantos Blancos Phase II study evaluating a brownfield expansion to increase mill throughput (targeting additional ~10ktpa of Cu over first 10 years) and a tailings reprocessing opportunity (potential to increase cathode production by ~25ktpa over 15 years) is due in 2026
The Santo Domingo project is expected to take a material step forward during H2 2025 with Capstone expected to announce a strategic partner for the development ahead of potential project sanctioning in 2026
Rainbow Rare Earths anticipate releasing the Definitive Feasibility Study for the Phalaborwa rare earths project, with the target for first production by end of 2027
The anticipated growth in volumes across the Group’s portfolio of producing assets in H2 2025 should, at current commodity prices, enable the Group to further reduce net debt by year end

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Duane Hope

Duane Hope is a Partner at Capital 10X, he brings over 15 years of communications and research experience to the firm. His research and writing have appeared in publications for North American, European and Asian audiences.