Marijuana Cultivation Capacity – The Best Predictor of Florida Market Share?

After taking a look at Trulieve’s grip on the Florida market and Liberty Health Sciences’ recent breakout, we became intrigued by the production capacity of the top players in the Florida marijuana market.

With Florida law mandating companies operate as vertically integrated businesses, we know their production capacity is the limit to their sales. If a company is unable to meet demand in the expanding Florida market, it could lead to a loss of market share, especially for the skyrocketing “smokable” segment (flower).

Interestingly, in all of our slicing and dicing of the Florida market, production capacity appears to be the best predictor of market share of total sales.

It’s also important for investors to consider production efficiency and understand current production capacity and future growth plans. A company struggling to meet demand could signal an aggressive expansion is coming.

We dug through public financial statements and searched press releases (for private companies) to compile data. The following sections summarize the results and show you how companies stack up.

Current Florida Cultivation Capacity

Trulieve (TRUL)

Trulieve was by far the most transparent company in regards to their production capacity and plant yield. The following table summarizes their reported numbers.

Cultivation Area (sq. ft.)Production Capacity (kg – annually)Average Yield (g/plant)Growing Cycle (days)Average Selling Price ($/gram)
1,684,40863,1901281339.62

Based on these numbers, the cultivation area yield is 38 g/sq. ft. This capacity is spread across 5 separate facilities that Trulieve manages.

Liberty Health Sciences (LHS)

Liberty Health Sciences was also fairly transparent, reporting the following numbers across their two facilities:

FacilityCultivation Area (sq. ft.)Production Capacity (kg – annually)
360 Campus190,00019,500

This yielded a combined cultivation area yield of 103 g/sq. ft. This is a very high yield, suggesting LHS’ campus truly is state of the art, or they are reporting their cultivation space different than most producers.

Liberty Health also reported total marijuana harvested of 3,400 kg in their latest quarter.

Curaleaf (CURA)

Curaleaf was the least transparent public company in reporting their production capacity in Florida. Their only stated parameter was the cultivation area for their indoor (24,000 sq. ft.) and greenhouse (278,000 sq. ft.) facilities.

Based on these areas, and assuming a 12-week growing cycle and yields of 60 g/sq. ft. and 45 g/sq. ft., their annual capacity is 14,000 kg.

FacilityCultivation Area (sq. ft.)Production Capacity (kg – annually)Cultivation Area Yield (g/sq. ft.)
Indoor24,0001,50060
Greenhouse278,00012,50045

Surterra Wellness

Surterra is a private company with little information available. All we had to work with for Surterra was a cultivation area of 300,000 sq. ft. Assuming a cultivation area yield of 45 g/sq. ft., they can produce 13,500 kg annually.

Cultivation Area (sq. ft.)Production Capacity (kg – annually)Cultivation Area Yield (g/sq. ft.)
300,00013,50045

AltMed

AltMed is another private company, so the information was again more difficult to track down. However, they report having 150,000 sq. ft. of cultivation space, and a production capacity of approximately 500 lbs per week. This yields the following figures.

Cultivation Area (sq. ft.)Production Capacity (kg – annually)Cultivation Area Yield (g/sq. ft.)
 150,000 11,80079

VidaCann

VidaCann is also a private company, however, through the canceled-acquisition by Cresco, it was reported that they had 70,000 sq. ft. of cultivation area, increasing to 140,000 by the end of 2019.

Given we are in December, we gave them credit for the new facility and assumed a cultivation area yield of 45 g/sq. ft.

Cultivation Area (sq. ft.)Production Capacity (kg – annually)Cultivation Area Yield (g/sq. ft.)
140,0006,30045

GrowHealthy (iAnthus – IAN)

The production capacity of GrowHealthy, a subsidiary of iAnthus Capital Holdings, was extracted from iAnthus’ financial statements.

iAnthus reports a total annual production capacity of 13,600 kg based on a total cultivation area of 295,000 sq. ft. and 156 g/plant.

Their dedicated Florida cultivation area is 120,000 sq. ft., which on an equal basis would represent approximately 5,500 kg of annual production in Florida.

Cultivation Area (sq. ft.)Production Capacity (kg – annually)Cultivation Area Yield (g/sq. ft.)
120,0005,50046

Fluent (Cansortium – TIUM)

Fluent was transparent, however, they reported numbers different than most producers.

FacilityCultivation Area (sq. ft.)Capacity (# of plants)Plant Yield (mg THC per plant)
Winter Garden30,00014,0002,300
Tampa Facility60,00043,0002,300

Based on their stated harvest cycle of 98 days and assuming an average THC concentration of 15% within the plants, Fluent’s annual production capacity can be determined.

FacilityProduction Capacity (kg – annually)Cultivation Area Yield (g/sq. ft.)Grams per Plant
Winter Garden8002615
Tampa Facility2,4004015

It’s important to note that Fluent’s gram per plant yield is very low compared to peer averages across the marijuana industry. This suggests there is significant room for Fluent to increase production without investing in more production space.

Florida Cultivation Utilization

After compiling the approximate production capacities of the top marijuana producers in Florida, we wanted to compare their weekly sales to their weekly production capacity.

To keep everyone on equal footing, we assumed 15% THC concentration in the flower and calculated total flower sales (extract + smokable) from OMMU data. The following chart shows the results.

Weekly Flower Sales Vs. Weekly Flower Production

Source: Florida OMMU.

Looking at the differences between production and sales, you can see which companies have room to grow sales and which may need to invest more.

The graph suggests most companies can ramp production substantially to meet demand before needing to invest in additional production capacity.

It’s worth highlighting that changing the average THC content from 15% to 10% does not substantially increase the total flower sales. We also want to stress that we are not claiming the companies are producing this much marijuana, only that they have the ability based on their current facilities.

Finally, we also wanted to see who was managing to punch above their weight in terms of their market share of weekly production compared to market share of weekly sales.

Share of Weekly Production Capacity Vs. Share of Weekly Sales

Source: Florida OMMU.

Even with a sizeable gap between production capacity and sales, Trulieve still manages to capture an outsized share of the market. Fluent, Curaleaf, and AltMed also capture a solid market share based on production capacity.

Room for More Growth

As indicated by the rapid increase in flower sales over the last few weeks, there is clearly a surging demand for flower products. Couple this with the growing patient base and patient consumption and it’s clear there is still more room for growth in the Florida market.

The excess production capacity compared to sales appears to suggest companies have more than enough capacity to meet market demand. However, looking deeper, that may not be the case.

Interestingly, in all of our slicing and dicing of the Florida market, production capacity appears to be the best predictor of market share of sales. While everyone gets excited about dispensaries or new products, they may not be the key to a company’s short-term growth.

For example, the following chart shows the share of dispensaries relative to total weekly sales.

Market Share of Dispensaries Vs. Weekly Flower Sales

Source: Florida OMMU.

This supports the notion that demand is currently outpacing supply. Now, whether that’s a greenhouse capacity issue remains to be seen.

It could also be a slow ramp-up by producers or supply-chain bottlenecks as was experienced in Canada. Alternatively, it could also be a misjudgment by the cultivators on the production yields from their greenhouses.

Either way, this suggests companies need to improve the utilization of their greenhouses and get more product in the hands of consumers. The ones who do so fastest are likely to capture more of the Florida market.

Looking forward, with edibles and possible recreational legalization on the horizon, there appears to be robust long-term demand. Many Florida producers already have plans to ramp production further to try and capture more of this burgeoning market. But we will save that breakdown for another piece.

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iAnthus Capital Holdings was a market awareness client of Capital 10X.

The opinions provided in this article are those of the author and do not constitute investment advice. Readers should assume that the author and/or employees of Capital 10X hold positions in the company or companies mentioned in the article. For more information, please see our Content Disclaimer.

Evan Veryard
Evan Veryard has a Bachelor's of Chemical Engineering from McGill University and a MaSc. of Chemical Engineering from RMC. He has over 6 years of research experience focusing on industrial materials. Address: 682 Indian Road, Toronto, Ontario, M6P 2C9. Phone: 416-721-8257.
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