
Callon Petroleum’s [stock_market_widget type="inline" template="generic" color="default" assets="CPE" markup="(NYSE: {symbol} {currency_symbol}{price} ({change_pct}))" api="yf"] fourth-quarter results turned out to be a mixed bag as the company missed the market’s bottom-line expectations, but investors didn’t seem to mind. This is likely because the oil producer delivered solid year-over-year revenue and earnings growth despite the oil price crash, and looks set to perform well going forward even if oil prices remain under pressure.
Oil Production Growth Drives Results
Callon’s average daily production during the fourth quarter came in at 41,087 barrels of oil equivalent, 81% of which was crude oil. This represents a 55% increase over the company’s production in the prior-year period, which was good enough to offset the 11.6% annual decline in the average realized price during the quarter. For the full year, the company delivered 32,900 barrels of oil equivalent, up 44% over the prior year.
The lower pricing witnessed by Callon pushed the company’s operating margin to $33.85 per barrel during the fourth quarter as compared to $40.51 in the prior-year period. Despite this, Callon managed to deliver adjusted net income of nearly $40 million (after accounting for the one-time gain of $105.5 million on derivatives) as compared to the prior-year period’s figure of $30.2 million.
But what seems to have captured investors’ attention is the fact that Callon delivered $151 million in cash flow in the fourth quarter. This exceeded its capital outlay of nearly $128 million, helping the company generate nearly $23 million in free cash flow.
Looking ahead, Callon looks well-placed to maintain its cash flow momentum as it plans to increase production at much lower costs this year.
Callon’s Low-Cost Oil Production a Catalyst
For 2019, Callon expects to produce between 39,500 and 41,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 23% over 2018. But this impressive production increase will be delivered at a 12% lower capital expense level, as the company plans to place between 47 and 49 wells on production this year as compared to 54 wells last year. Callon expects its 2019 capital expenditures to range between $500 million and $525 million as compared to its last year’s outlay of $583 million.
What’s more, Callon management believes that the company is on track to generate “sustainable free cash flow generation at WTI prices in the low $50s from repeatable investments in our high-quality asset base.” With that, it’s not surprising Callon will be able to keep a handle on its costs this year.
The company forecasts lease operating expenses of $6.00 per barrel at the mid-point of its guidance, an increase of just 4% over last year. Additionally, adjusted general and administrative expenses are expected to remain nearly flat year over year.
Not surprisingly, analysts project a nice bump in Callon’s earnings not only for 2019, but for 2020 as well. That’s because the company’s efficient production profile will eventually boost its earnings power in the future and help the stock deliver more upside. As such, now would be a good time for investors to go long Callon as the stock has lost over a third of its value in the past year, but looks poised to stage a comeback in the future.